Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is edging closer to a 2026 U.S. Senate run against Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), setting a high fundraising bar for himself before making it official. Paxton has stated that if he can secure $20 million in commitments over the next few months, he believes he can defeat Cornyn in a Republican primary.
"I think I can win if I have $20 million. I’ve run these primaries in Texas before. I honestly don’t see how [Cornyn] overcomes his numbers," Paxton told Punchbowl News during a recent trip to Washington, D.C., where he met with various political players, including officials at the White House.
The Numbers: Is Cornyn Vulnerable?
Polling on a potential Cornyn-Paxton showdown has been limited, but what does exist suggests a competitive race. The Texas Politics Project found Paxton enjoying a +51 net approval rating among Republicans, compared to Cornyn’s +28. Meanwhile, a February survey from the Hobby School of Public Affairs indicated that about 70% of Republican voters would at least consider voting for either candidate, though a notable share—15%—said they would never support Cornyn, while 19% said the same about Paxton.
Paxton believes the numbers signal an opportunity. "I think it’s just time. He’s had his chance. He hasn’t performed well, and the voters know it," he said. "You can go a long time without people paying attention. And they’re paying attention now."
The Trump Factor
A key endorsement in the race will be former President Donald Trump’s. Paxton, a staunch Trump ally, ultimately received the former president’s backing in 2022 after Trump considered endorsing his primary opponent, George P. Bush. Cornyn, for his part, has been working to get closer to Trump as the 2026 election looms.
But there are complications. Paxton is a client of Jeff Roe and Axiom Strategies, a powerhouse GOP consulting firm that also represents Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX). However, Roe’s standing in Trump’s inner circle has taken a hit, particularly after he ran the super PAC for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ 2024 presidential campaign—a move that put him at odds with Trump. While Paxton has secured Trump’s backing in the past, a federal Senate race could be a different story.
Money Talks
Fundraising will be a critical test for Paxton. While Cornyn has raised an astonishing $400 million for himself and Senate Republicans since taking office in 2003, Paxton has pulled in over $40 million for his state races since becoming attorney general in 2015. Though state races have fewer restrictions, the gap highlights the challenge ahead for Paxton as he transitions to a national fundraising stage.
Cornyn’s Conservative Credibility Under Fire
Paxton sees Cornyn as vulnerable on several policy issues that have rankled conservative activists. Chief among them: Cornyn’s support for foreign aid to Ukraine and his role in the 2022 gun reform legislation passed after the tragic school shooting in Uvalde. The gun bill, which tightened background checks for younger buyers and encouraged states to adopt red-flag laws, led to Cornyn being loudly booed at the 2022 Texas GOP convention—an indication of his rocky standing among the party’s most vocal grassroots activists.
A High-Stakes GOP Showdown
A Cornyn-Paxton battle in 2026 would be a heavyweight clash within the Texas Republican Party, pitting an establishment fundraising juggernaut against a conservative firebrand with deep activist support. Paxton’s impeachment and subsequent acquittal in 2023 only boosted his standing among many Republican voters who see him as a fighter against what they perceive as political persecution.
