The battle for the soul of the Texas Republican Party could be heading for a high-stakes showdown in 2026, as Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) considers challenging longtime U.S. Sen. John Cornyn (R) in the Republican primary. Paxton confirmed in a recent Fox News interview that he is weighing a bid for Cornyn’s seat and expects to decide in the coming months.
If Paxton enters the race, it would set up a fierce and expensive contest between two figures representing opposing wings of the Texas GOP—Cornyn, a veteran senator with deep establishment ties, and Paxton, a firebrand conservative closely aligned with former President Donald Trump.
A Party Divided
Paxton’s potential challenge highlights the widening rift within the Texas Republican Party, where hardline conservatives continue to gain ground against the more traditional establishment.
“The right wing is ascendant,” said GOP strategist Brendan Steinhauser, who previously worked on Cornyn’s campaign. While moderates still hold influence, he noted that the political momentum within the party has shifted sharply rightward.
Cornyn, who has served in the Senate since 2002 and would be seeking a fifth term, has come under fire from Paxton and other conservatives for supporting bipartisan legislation, including a 2022 gun control measure following the Uvalde school shooting and aid for Ukraine’s defense against Russia. Paxton has accused Cornyn of being too moderate, calling him a “RINO” (Republican in name only) and arguing that he prioritizes foreign interests over protecting the U.S. border.
Cornyn has pushed back, defending his positions and taking direct aim at Paxton’s legal troubles. “Hard to run from prison, Ken,” he quipped, referencing Paxton’s long-running securities fraud case. Though Paxton avoided trial by reaching a settlement in 2024, his legal history remains a key line of attack for opponents.
A Clash of Heavyweights
Paxton, despite facing controversy, has proven to be a formidable force in Texas politics. He was re-elected as attorney general in 2022 after defeating a well-funded primary challenge from George P. Bush. He also survived an impeachment attempt in 2023, in which House Republicans overwhelmingly voted to remove him, but Senate Republicans acquitted him.
Cornyn, on the other hand, has never lost an election and has consistently won by large margins. He comfortably defeated a conservative challenger in the 2014 primary and won re-election in 2020 despite a strong Democratic push. His deep political network, fundraising capabilities, and experience could give him an early advantage.
However, some strategists believe the Texas GOP’s shift to the right could make this race different. Republican consultant Charlie Kolean noted that Paxton has successfully positioned himself as a “disruptor” and a key Trump ally, a distinction that could matter if Trump himself gets involved.
“If Cornyn makes a mistake on Trump’s agenda, Trump could be eager to endorse Paxton,” Kolean said.
The Road Ahead
Cornyn’s support within the GOP establishment remains strong, but many grassroots conservatives believe he is not conservative enough. GOP strategist Vinny Minchillo said the senator still faces lingering resentment over past compromises, especially on gun rights.
“If it becomes a referendum on Cornyn, that’s probably advantage Paxton,” Minchillo said. “If it’s a referendum on Paxton, it’s advantage Cornyn.”
With Texas politics increasingly defined by internal Republican battles, this primary could become one of the most expensive and contentious in the country. If Paxton jumps in, the race will test whether the GOP’s old guard can still hold its ground or if the party’s insurgent wing will claim another victory.
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