James Carville’s fantasy politics

In an era where political discourse often feels more like fortune-telling than analysis, James Carville has emerged as one of the Democratic Party’s most vocal prophets. His latest prediction? That President Trump’s administration is already in “massive collapse” just one month into its second term. Carville, long a champion of the Democratic establishment’s passive approach, believes that if Democrats simply wait and do nothing, public support for Trump will evaporate, and victory will be theirs.

This is not strategy. This is magical thinking.

The Numbers Don’t Lie—Carville Does

For all the breathless media coverage of Carville’s comments, there is simply no evidence that Trump’s presidency is on the verge of collapse. According to RealClearPolitics, Trump began his second term with an approval rating of about 51%, and today, it sits just below 50%. That is hardly the freefall that Carville predicts. If anything, it suggests that despite the constant drumbeat of negative press, Trump retains a strong base of support.

Even more inconvenient for Democrats is the fact that Americans broadly support Trump’s governing philosophy. A Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 59% of respondents favor downsizing the federal government—including a third of Democrats, most independents, and nearly all Republicans. The assumption that Americans will revolt against Trump’s policies is not backed by reality. Instead, many voters see a bloated bureaucracy as a problem, and Trump’s aggressive approach to streamlining government is resonating.

Democrats Have No Message—And No Plan

Carville’s advice to Democrats—to “roll over and play dead” while Trump supposedly implodes—is not only unwise but also politically unsustainable. Democratic voters are growing frustrated with their party’s lack of a clear direction. They expected resistance, theatrics, and bold opposition to Trump’s policies. Instead, the Democratic leadership has chosen inertia, operating under the assumption that Trump’s presidency will self-destruct without their intervention.

But if that were true, why is the Democratic Party failing to defend its own policies? Democrats have barely lifted a finger to counter Trump’s most aggressive rollbacks of Biden-era initiatives. Consider:

Trump has dismantled the Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) bureaucracy, yet Democrats have offered little more than muted objections.

His administration is deporting illegal immigrants at a pace not seen in decades, yet Democrats, once the party of open-border activism, have remained largely silent.

Trump is crushing Biden’s electric vehicle agenda, gutting subsidies and regulatory mandates that had driven up costs for consumers. Once again, Democrats have failed to present a compelling counterargument.

If Democrats believe that Trump’s policies are harmful, why aren’t they fighting back? The answer is simple: they lack confidence in their own agenda. The progressive policies they championed under Biden—massive government expansion, climate mandates, and woke social policies—were deeply unpopular. Rather than defend them, Democrats are pretending they never existed, hoping that voters forget their failures by the time the next election rolls around.

A Party Built on Faith, Not Facts

Carville’s strategy hinges on the idea that Democratic governance is America’s natural state, and that any Republican administration is an anomaly doomed to fail. This belief is not rooted in political science or history—it is an article of faith. Democrats assume that if they simply wait long enough, the nation will “correct itself” and return them to power.

This is a dangerous delusion.

In reality, Trump is governing, enacting policies that many Americans support, and making good on his promises. The Democratic Party, on the other hand, is adrift, lacking both leadership and a coherent vision. Carville and his fellow Democrats can continue reading tea leaves, but until they confront the political reality before them, they will remain stuck in the same cycle of wishful thinking and inevitable disappointment.

While the Left pins its hopes on collapsing poll numbers and divine intervention, conservatives are actually leading. The question Democrats must ask themselves is not whether they should “play dead” and wait for Trump to fail, but whether they have anything left to offer the American people at all.