In his second term, Donald Trump appears committed to one principle above all: using every tool at his disposal to advance his agenda. His early actions and rhetoric suggest a presidency shaped by the blunt application of power, both at home and abroad. The Trump doctrine could be summarized as: We can do this the easy way or the hard way. Judging by the first week, he intends to lean hard on that latter option.
This philosophy was made clear when Trump issued a blunt warning via Truth Social: Russia must cut a peace deal with Ukraine, or face tariffs. It was an audacious move, combining Trump’s characteristic bravado with the economic leverage of the world’s largest economy. The message was simple: cooperate, or face consequences.
But it was a diplomatic spat with Colombian President Gustavo Petro that truly exemplified Trump’s second-term approach. Petro initially resisted accepting flights of deported Colombian nationals, triggering a swift and unyielding response. Trump threatened tariffs of 25%, escalating to 50% within a week, on Colombian goods—a move that would have devastated Colombia’s economy, given that a quarter of its exports are destined for the United States. Petro’s initial resistance crumbled under the weight of economic reality, leaving Trump with a clear victory.
This wasn’t just about Colombia; it was about setting an example. Trump’s approach is to make every confrontation a public spectacle, creating a cautionary tale for other leaders considering defiance. Traditionally, diplomacy involves allowing opponents to save face to preserve long-term relationships. Trump, however, is rewriting the playbook. By embarrassing Petro, he sent a message to other nations: resistance to U.S. demands could come at a steep price.
This episode highlights Trump’s core belief that the overwhelming might of the United States—economic, military, and political—should not be treated as a mere burden or responsibility but as a weapon to be wielded. The days of polite negotiation and restrained diplomacy are over. Trump’s approach is unapologetically transactional: What can you do for us, and how much will it cost if you don’t?
A Presidency of Leverage
At home, Trump is wielding a similar strategy. His political power stems not just from his base of fervent supporters but also from the fear he instills in dissenters within his own party. Trump’s first term saw him end the political careers of several high-profile Republican critics, creating an atmosphere of obedience within the GOP. In his second term, this leverage is even stronger. His victory comes with a mandate, amplified by the backing of a movement that views him as a transformative figure rather than just another president.
Trump’s administration is now determined to dig deep into the federal code, unearthing authorities and powers that previous presidents may have overlooked or avoided. This relentless pursuit of executive tools indicates that no lever, however obscure, will be left unused if it can help advance his agenda.
For instance, Trump’s willingness to embrace tariffs—a tool dismissed by free-trade advocates for decades—gives him an advantage his predecessors lacked. Tariffs provide immediate economic pressure, forcing nations dependent on U.S. trade to make hard choices. This approach worked against Colombia and could be replicated to push other nations to restore immigration arrangements or comply with deportation flights—policies Trump views as key to his broader agenda.
Realpolitik with Reality TV Flair
Trump’s strategy is not without precedent, though it’s infused with his unique flair. His willingness to enforce small red lines early—such as with Colombia—harkens back to the principles of realpolitik, a pragmatic, power-driven approach to international relations. Otto von Bismarck, the 19th-century German statesman, famously used such tactics to unify Germany and secure its dominance in Europe. But where Bismarck operated behind closed doors, Trump plays to the cameras, adding the theatrics of a reality TV star and the reach of a social media mogul.
This style has risks. Trump’s combative tactics might work against smaller nations like Colombia, but they could backfire when dealing with major powers such as Russia or China. While tariffs are a potent weapon, they’re less effective against economies that can retaliate with their own economic or military tools. Furthermore, the Trump administration’s tendency to publicly humiliate opponents could lead to long-term resentment, undermining alliances that have traditionally bolstered U.S. influence.
Compellence vs. Deterrence
What sets Trump apart is his embrace of compellence, a strategy that goes beyond simply deterring adversaries from unwanted actions. Compellence involves making threats to force others to take specific actions the United States desires. While most presidents have preferred deterrence as a less provocative approach, Trump sees compellence as a more direct and effective path. His logic is clear: Why wait for others to act when you can force their hand?
This shift in strategy marks a significant departure from conventional U.S. diplomacy. Deterrence operates on the assumption that threats of punishment can maintain stability. Compellence, by contrast, is inherently disruptive, demanding change and action. Trump’s use of tariffs as a tool of compellence gives him leverage that free-trade-oriented presidents would have hesitated to deploy. It also reflects his broader philosophy: leverage power to its fullest extent, no matter the fallout.
A Forceful Presidency, but at What Cost?
Trump’s second term is shaping up to be a presidency of relentless action, both abroad and at home. His willingness to challenge norms and use America’s power aggressively has drawn comparisons to Teddy Roosevelt’s "big stick" diplomacy. But unlike Roosevelt, Trump’s approach is less concerned with building goodwill or fostering long-term stability. Instead, he aims for immediate results, often at the expense of traditional diplomatic niceties.
This strategy is not without its dangers. Early victories, such as the one over Colombia, may embolden Trump to escalate his tactics, risking larger confrontations that could spiral out of control. His adversaries abroad are unlikely to back down as easily as Petro did, while at home, his aggressive use of executive authority could provoke legal and political battles.
Whatever the outcome, one thing is certain: Donald Trump is determined to squeeze every ounce of power and influence out of his presidency. His unapologetic style, willingness to take risks, and rejection of convention guarantee that this term will be unlike any other in modern history. Whether it leads to triumph or turmoil remains to be seen. But for Trump, the calculation is simple: If you have leverage, use it.
