A contentious battle for the Texas House speakership is barreling toward a dramatic conclusion, marking one of the most fractured and uncertain races in recent memory. With days remaining before the legislative session kicks off, no candidate has secured the 76 votes needed to wield the gavel. The divisions within the Republican and Democratic caucuses have left the outcome in doubt, setting the stage for a tumultuous start to the 89th legislative session.
A Historic Deadlock
Under normal circumstances, the speakership race would be resolved well before the session’s opening day. However, months of political infighting and an unusually brutal election cycle have upended tradition. Three candidates are currently in the running: Reps. David Cook (R-Mansfield), Dustin Burrows (R-Lubbock), and Ana-Maria Ramos (D-Dallas). Though the ultimate winner is expected to be a Republican, the fractured state of the GOP caucus has made it impossible to predict who will emerge victorious.
Key Questions in the Race
1. Can Burrows Maintain a Coalition with Democrats?
Dustin Burrows, a close ally of outgoing Speaker Dade Phelan, initially sought a bipartisan coalition, boasting 38 Republicans and 38 Democrats in his corner. But defections from both parties have eroded his support, leaving him scrambling to maintain credibility. Burrows’ reliance on Democratic votes has drawn ire from the Republican right, branding him as the “Democrats’ speaker nominee.”
If Burrows can alleviate the pressure on potential Republican defectors, he may still have a path to victory. However, the strategy has made him a polarizing figure within his own party, and the pressure could lead to more fractures before voting begins.
2. Can Cook Court Enough Democrats?
David Cook’s candidacy leans heavily on the Republican right, yet his path to victory requires significant Democratic support. Despite signing the conservative-backed "Contract with Texas," Cook has been courting Democrats with promises of increased office budgets, expanded teacher pay, and a shift in public education funding from attendance-based to enrollment-based.
Whether these overtures can overcome the Democratic caucus' prohibition on supporting Republican candidates remains to be seen. If Cook manages to peel off enough Democrats, it could set the stage for a dramatic upset.
3. Will a Third Candidate Emerge?
Speculation about a dark horse candidate has swirled for weeks. While names like Reps. Todd Hunter, Charlie Geren, and Drew Darby have been floated, no one has formally entered the race. If Cook and Burrows hit an impasse on the floor, the possibility of a last-minute consensus candidate could grow.
4. What Happens to Parliamentarian Hugh Brady?
The role of House parliamentarian, currently held by Hugh Brady, has become a flashpoint in the speakership race. Brady’s strict enforcement of procedural rules has angered members on both sides of the aisle. If Cook wins, Brady’s days are likely numbered. Burrows faces a more difficult choice, as Brady’s ties to former Speaker Dennis Bonnen could weigh heavily on his decision.
The Larger Stakes for the Session
The stakes of the speakership battle extend far beyond the gavel. With school choice, education funding, and a tighter budget surplus looming large, the tone set by this fight will shape the entire session. A prolonged or acrimonious speaker vote could paralyze the House, delaying key committee assignments and stalling progress on urgent issues.
The Texas Freedom Caucus and other hardline factions are poised to amplify discord, potentially derailing even the most basic legislative priorities. Meanwhile, Governor Greg Abbott’s push for education savings accounts will face fierce resistance from Democrats and moderate Republicans alike, ensuring that the session will be rife with conflict regardless of who takes the speaker’s chair.
Can Stability Prevail?
Despite the divisions, exhaustion among lawmakers could push both parties toward compromise. The past two sessions, marked by endless special sessions and high-profile fights, have left many legislators eager to avoid another year of gridlock. However, the deep fractures exposed in this speakership race suggest that lasting peace may be elusive.
As the first day of the session approaches, all eyes are on the Texas House. Whether through a breakthrough, a stalemate, or a third-candidate surprise, the outcome of this battle will set the tone for one of the most contentious sessions in state history.
