As the House of Representatives prepares to convene on Friday, the stakes could not be higher for Representative Mike Johnson, who faces a daunting reelection bid for the speakership. With a razor-thin Republican majority — 219 Republicans to 215 Democrats — and one seat vacant, Johnson’s path to the necessary 218 votes is fraught with obstacles. Representative Thomas Massie’s (R-Ky.) pledge to vote “no” only heightens the challenge, making the margin for error practically nonexistent.
At a time when governance is already teetering on the brink, the prospect of ousting Johnson raises a critical question: What would chaos accomplish? The answer, as history and common sense suggest, is not much.
Johnson’s Leadership: A Proven Track Record
Despite the pressures of leading a divided caucus, Mike Johnson has demonstrated steady and pragmatic leadership since unexpectedly rising to the speakership. As a reliable conservative and a shrewd tactician, Johnson has navigated his role with a likability that has eluded some of his predecessors. His ability to maintain a functional relationship with former President Donald Trump has been a delicate balancing act, executed with skill.
Critics of Johnson’s tenure cite the lack of a more transparent budget process and his handling of continuing resolutions. While these are valid concerns, they are far from unique to his speakership. The problem of rushed “must-pass” spending bills is a systemic issue in Congress, not one created by Johnson. Moreover, his decision to support continued aid to Ukraine was both principled and politically courageous.
The Alternative? Dysfunction and Gridlock
The stakes of removing Johnson go beyond a mere leadership change. Without a speaker, the House cannot function — no swearing in of new members, no legislative activity, no certification of election results. The last time the House lacked a speaker, following Kevin McCarthy’s ouster in October 2023, the chamber was paralyzed for nearly three weeks.
In today’s context, such paralysis would be catastrophic. Without Johnson, the House would be unable to certify the presidential election results, potentially triggering a constitutional crisis. If this process were delayed beyond January 20, it could lead to an unprecedented scenario in which the president pro tempore of the Senate — currently 91-year-old Chuck Grassley — assumes the presidency.
Insanity Is Not a Strategy
Some conservative critics argue that a period of chaos might pave the way for a better speaker. But history suggests otherwise. McCarthy’s removal led to Johnson, a leader who has governed in much the same way McCarthy did, because the structural challenges of leading a fractious caucus remain the same. Replacing Johnson is unlikely to yield a fundamentally different outcome.
As the old saying goes, insanity is doing the same thing over and over again while expecting a different result. Republicans must recognize that ousting Johnson in pursuit of an ill-defined “better” alternative will only sow further dysfunction.
A Call for Common Sense
Republicans have a capable speaker in Mike Johnson. His leadership is not perfect, but it is effective within the constraints he faces. At a time when the House and the nation can ill afford chaos, Republicans should rally behind him. To do otherwise is to risk plunging Congress — and the country — into another period of unnecessary turmoil.
