Congressional Republican leaders spent the weeks following November's election strategizing how to deliver on President-elect Donald Trump’s ambitious agenda for immigration, tax reform, energy, and defense. Yet, as the new Congress convenes in January, the narrow House majority and internal party divisions could turn this legislative year into a high-stakes balancing act.
Although Republicans control the presidency, the Senate, and the House, governing effectively will not be straightforward. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R., La.) faces a razor-thin 219–215 majority, which is expected to shrink to 217–215 with impending resignations. Representatives Mike Waltz (R., Fla.) and Elise Stefanik (R., N.Y.) are leaving to join the Trump administration, while Rep. Matt Gaetz (R., Fla.) has also stepped down. These vacancies, until filled, leave Johnson with virtually no room for error.
Challenges of a Slim Majority
Johnson’s leadership will be tested early. On January 3, Republicans must reelect him as speaker, a task complicated by opposition from some conservative members of his caucus. Representative Thomas Massie (R., Ky.), a vocal fiscal hawk, remains skeptical of Johnson’s ability to advance Trump’s agenda without compromising conservative principles.
“I respect and support President Trump, but his endorsement of Mike Johnson is going to work out about as well as his endorsement of Speaker Paul Ryan,” Massie warned.
Other Republicans share concerns about Johnson’s recent efforts, particularly during December’s fraught government funding negotiations. Johnson narrowly avoided a shutdown after two failed attempts to pass bipartisan bills. His ultimate success came at the cost of leaving the debt ceiling unresolved, setting the stage for another fiscal showdown as the new administration begins.
Trump’s Backing and GOP Infighting
President-elect Trump has thrown his weight behind Johnson, praising him as a "hardworking, religious man" who will "do the right thing." However, some members of the hardline Freedom Caucus, including its chair, Rep. Andy Harris (R., Md.), are not convinced Johnson is the right leader to push forward Trump’s priorities. They hint that Johnson’s reelection as speaker could hinge on concessions to the party’s fiscal conservatives, such as agreeing to significant spending cuts.
The looming speaker vote reflects broader tensions within the party. “The American people want us to get things done,” said Rep. Dan Meuser (R., Pa.), expressing frustration with colleagues who might obstruct legislation. He warned against using the slim majority to hold bills hostage over minor disputes, saying, “Whoever does that, hell, I’ll oppose them in their primary.”
A Packed Legislative Agenda
Once leadership battles are resolved, Republicans face an ambitious to-do list. Congressional leaders are divided over how to prioritize Trump’s 2024 campaign promises. Senate GOP leader John Thune (R., S.D.) has proposed tackling energy, defense, and immigration in one legislative package while saving tax reform for later. Thune argues this approach could deliver early victories through the budget reconciliation process, bypassing the Senate’s 60-vote filibuster.
However, House Ways and Means chairman Jason Smith (R., Mo.) believes tax reform should come first. Many provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act expire at the end of 2025, and Smith worries delays could jeopardize their extension. “To come up with [the] idea that we will do a small reconciliation at the beginning … and a second [bill] will be tax, is very foolish,” Smith said last month. “It breeds failure.”
Adding to the difficulty, budget hawks are likely to demand steep federal spending cuts as a condition for extending the 2017 tax cuts. This intra-party tension raises doubts about whether Republicans can pass two reconciliation bills in a single year.
The Road Ahead
Despite internal divisions, Republicans acknowledge the stakes. “Everybody is going to have to vote for things that they don’t necessarily love,” said Rep. Mike Lawler (R., N.Y.), emphasizing the need for compromise to advance major legislation. Lawmakers expect significant pressure from the White House to avoid legislative gridlock, especially given Trump’s electoral mandate.
Representative Mike Collins (R., Ga.) warned his colleagues against undermining the party’s agenda. “On November 5, the American people spoke,” Collins said. “Now, when our coach calls the play and you don’t want to run the play? We change players at halftime.”
