As 2025 begins, Texas finds itself on the brink of a challenging year marked by internal political strife, rising crises, and contentious debates. The state's ruling Republican coalition is divided, with simmering feuds threatening to undermine its unity, just as Texas grapples with an array of pressing issues, from its struggling electrical grid to an escalating water shortage. This period of political infighting is complicated further by the return of President-elect Donald Trump to the White House, whose allies in Austin face the challenge of aligning with Washington while managing the state's complex problems.
Power Struggles in the Texas GOP
Perhaps the most immediate concern within the state is the intense power struggle consuming the Texas GOP. While much of the national spotlight this election cycle was focused on the race between incumbent Senator Ted Cruz and challenger Rep. Colin Allred, a deeper, more significant battle has been unfolding behind the scenes within the state's ruling coalition.
In recent months, Gov. Greg Abbott, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, and Attorney General Ken Paxton have been waging a battle to consolidate their control over the Texas House. Their goal: to remove any Republicans who opposed their initiatives, including Abbott’s school voucher program and Paxton’s impeachment. Through a campaign of influence and targeted primaries, they succeeded in ousting key House members who resisted their agendas. The culmination of this effort came in December when Speaker Dade Phelan announced he would not seek re-election after barely surviving a bruising primary runoff.
However, the battle for control of the House is far from over. The state GOP now finds itself divided between two factions: the hard-right "reformer" wing, led by state Rep. David Cook, who advocates for sweeping changes like eliminating committee chair positions for Democrats and pushing for school vouchers, and a more moderate faction, represented by state Rep. Dustin Burrows, who aims to maintain the bipartisan nature of the House and take a more measured approach to vouchers. With both sides claiming victory, the legislature’s future appears steeped in animosity, setting the stage for a contentious session in 2025.
A Shift in Immigration Policy with Trump's Return
Texas's contentious relationship with the federal government under President Joe Biden is also poised for a major shift with the return of Donald Trump to the White House. For the past few years, Texas GOP leaders, led by Abbott, have openly defied Biden's immigration policies, including busing migrants to Northeastern cities and challenging the federal government's asylum policies. These actions, while making headlines, have had limited impact on actual policy, as the Biden administration has opposed many of Abbott’s moves.
With Trump’s re-election, however, Texas could see more influence over immigration policy. Trump ran on a platform of aggressive immigration reform, including mass deportations, and has already garnered support from Texas officials who are eager to partner with the federal government. Abbott has offered over 13 million acres of state land for internment camps, and Texas is in a legal battle to allow the state to conduct its own deportations, potentially making it the first state to establish an independent immigration policy.
This policy shift, however, comes with significant risks. Many business owners, particularly in agriculture, construction, and oil and gas, rely on workers who lack legal status, contributing billions to the state economy. A mass deportation effort could create economic turmoil, leading some Republicans, like Rep. Tony Gonzales, to caution against such drastic measures. Despite this, the state's GOP remains divided, with more hardline voices, such as Rep. Chip Roy, pushing for a broad deportation effort to begin with those who entered the U.S. after 2020.
Energy and Water Crises on the Horizon
As Texas continues to grow at a rapid pace, with some of the nation’s fastest-growing counties, it faces critical infrastructure challenges in both water and energy. State officials have raised alarms about the state’s shrinking water supply, with Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller warning that large swaths of the state are “out of water.” Meanwhile, the state’s electric grid, which experienced disastrous failures during the 2021 winter storm, remains a significant point of concern.
Grid managers have warned that a repeat of the 2021 freeze could lead to widespread blackouts, as the state’s isolated grid struggles to keep up with demand. With the state’s population growing and the demand for both water and electricity soaring, Texas’s infrastructure is under immense strain. In response, some lawmakers, like Sen. Charles Perry, have proposed bold ideas like creating a state "water grid" to ensure more reliable water distribution.
In the energy sector, debates over how to secure the state’s future energy needs are intensifying. Proponents of renewable energy solutions are pushing for large-scale battery storage to better integrate wind and solar power into the grid, while Abbott-aligned factions are advocating for the construction of more natural gas plants. Despite these efforts, the state’s electric grid remains fragile, especially after the power outages this past summer that left millions without electricity during a heatwave. How the legislature addresses these energy and water crises in 2025 could have long-term implications for the state’s future.
Cultural Wars and Legislative Fights
In addition to these pressing issues, the Texas legislature will also face a slew of controversial bills related to cultural and social issues. Education policy, in particular, will be at the forefront, with Abbott and Patrick pushing hard for a school voucher program that would allow public funds to be used for private schooling. While Abbott claims to have the votes necessary to pass the program, opponents within the legislature argue that it would undermine public education, potentially leading to massive defunding of public schools.
Meanwhile, Texas's abortion laws, which have drawn significant national attention, remain a hot-button issue. The state’s strict abortion ban has faced opposition from health professionals who argue it has led to dangerous consequences, including maternal deaths. As lawmakers reconvene, debates over whether to protect doctors who perform medically necessary abortions will continue, with some pushing for stricter enforcement and others advocating for exceptions.
Perhaps one of the most contentious issues, however, will be the future of cannabis regulation in Texas. Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick has made a push to ban the sale of intoxicating cannabis products, such as Delta-8 THC, which have flourished in a gray legal area since the 2018 federal legalization of hemp. At the same time, some lawmakers are pushing for a broader legalization of recreational marijuana, mirroring what has happened in states like Colorado and California. The debate over cannabis could divide the GOP, as the $8 billion cannabis industry has significant support among Republicans, creating a complex political challenge for state leaders.
Conclusion
As Texas enters 2025, its leaders will have to navigate a volatile political landscape, a growing array of social and economic challenges, and a shifting national political environment. From the fractious GOP power struggle to the state’s looming water and energy crises, the coming year promises to be one of the most consequential in recent memory. Whether Texas’s leadership can rise above its divisions and effectively address these issues will shape the state's future for years to come.
