After a contentious government spending deal that angered factions within the Republican Party, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) faces a critical test when lawmakers return to Capitol Hill on January 3. The House will swear in new members and vote on whether Johnson retains his gavel, a decision that could ripple through the party's ability to certify President-elect Donald Trump’s Electoral College win three days later.
The Republican-controlled House enters the session with 219 GOP members and 215 Democrats, setting the majority threshold for the speakership at 218. With Democrats united behind Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), Johnson can afford only one Republican defection. However, dissent is already brewing. Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) has publicly declared his opposition to Johnson, and other members remain undecided.
A Familiar Battle
The potential speakership fight evokes memories of the drawn-out struggle in early 2023 when former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) endured 14 failed ballots before finally securing the gavel. McCarthy’s removal later that year plunged the House into a three-week standstill, culminating in Johnson’s ascension as a consensus conservative choice. But now, Johnson’s leadership faces scrutiny from within, threatening to derail Congress's ability to certify Trump’s decisive victory over Vice President Kamala Harris.
Ironically, Harris, as president of the Senate, will oversee the January 6 certification process. Under the revised Electoral Count Reform Act, her role is purely ceremonial, ensuring the process adheres to constitutional guidelines. Still, the lack of a speaker could complicate proceedings, as the speaker selects tellers to read Electoral College votes and oversees any debate on objections.
Can the House Function Without a Speaker?
Legal scholars suggest that the House could technically proceed without a speaker, though it would require significant procedural improvisation. Justin Levitt, a law professor involved in drafting the updated Electoral Count Reform Act, noted that the 12th Amendment only mandates the vice president’s presence for certification, not the House speaker’s.
“While the speaker usually plays a ceremonial role in the process, the Constitution doesn’t require one,” Levitt explained. He suggested that Harris could administer the count alone if necessary, though it would be an unprecedented scenario.
GOP Infighting Undermines Unity
The uncertainty surrounding Johnson’s speakership stems from his handling of the recent government funding crisis. His final spending package, which extended funding until March and included disaster aid but omitted debt ceiling provisions, alienated both moderates and hardline conservatives. Democrats, who accused Johnson of reneging on a bipartisan agreement, have made clear they will not assist him in retaining the gavel.
“There will be no Democrats available to save him or the extreme MAGA Republicans from themselves,” Jeffries said, referencing GOP disarray.
Adding to Johnson’s challenges, reports suggest some Republicans are lobbying Trump to withdraw his support for the speaker. Johnson’s allies, however, are urging the president-elect to intervene on his behalf, warning that a prolonged leadership battle could delay Trump’s ambitious first 100 days.
Trump’s Influence Looms Large
Trump’s sway over the Republican caucus remains a wild card. While his endorsement helped secure Johnson’s initial speakership, rumblings from dissatisfied members indicate that Trump’s support could shift if another candidate emerges.
Rep. Carlos Gimenez (R-FL) urged his colleagues to avoid a protracted fight, emphasizing the stakes for Trump’s presidency. “A drawn-out process would serve no one but the opponents of President Trump and his agenda,” Gimenez said.
Still, others within the party see the speakership battle as a necessary reckoning. “This is a distraction,” said Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-MT). “But it’s the cost of dealing with the factionalism that’s plagued us for years.”
What’s at Stake?
For Johnson, the January 3 vote will not only determine his leadership but also set the tone for a critical session of Congress. With Trump’s certification looming and Republicans eager to advance their legislative agenda, the stakes couldn’t be higher. Whether Johnson can rally his party or falls victim to internal divisions, the outcome will shape the GOP’s trajectory heading into 2024.
