Shadow fleet sabotage sparks tensions in the Baltic

A mysterious incident on Christmas Day has raised alarms across the Baltic region, with the damage to an undersea electricity cable—Estlink 2—between Finland and Estonia suspected to be a deliberate act of sabotage. The cable, along with several communication lines, was sliced by an unknown vessel, reportedly linked to Russia's "shadow fleet." Authorities are working to determine whether the damage was accidental or part of a broader strategy to disrupt the region's energy security.

The cut to Estlink 2, a vital link in the electricity grid between the two nations, is expected to take several months to repair. While investigations continue, the disruption may lead to higher energy prices in the region in the coming months. Estonia, recognizing the risk of further attacks, has increased security around its second undersea cable, Estlink 1.

This latest act of sabotage adds to a growing list of similar incidents in recent years, often attributed to Russian assets operating in the Baltic. The shadow fleet, including vessels like the Eagle S—which flew the flag of the Cook Islands—has been linked to Russia’s covert operations, including the transport of oil products subject to international sanctions. The Eagle S is believed to have been involved in dragging an anchor, potentially causing the cable damage. Investigators have found a nearly 100-kilometer-long trail on the seabed, raising suspicions of deliberate sabotage.

Authorities are also investigating the role of another vessel, the Xin Xin Tian 2, a Hong Kong-flagged cargo ship, which was nearby during the incident. This ship is of particular interest, as it was linked to a previous act of sabotage in October, when an undersea gas pipeline between Finland and Estonia was damaged, reportedly by the anchor of a Chinese vessel. Similar incidents involving Chinese ships have added to growing concerns about the security of undersea infrastructure in the Baltic.

The timing of these attacks is particularly sensitive, as the three Baltic states—Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania—prepare to sever their ties with the BRELL power grid, a Soviet-era system that connects them to Russia and Belarus. This shift will see the countries integrate into the Western European energy network through Poland (LitPol), Sweden (NordBalt), and the Estlinks. Lithuania has delayed its departure for two years, but the three nations are set to make the move together in February 2024, enhancing their energy security and reducing their reliance on Russia.

The suspected sabotage could be seen as an attempt to disrupt this transition. If the cables were cut to interfere with this shift, it would reflect the geopolitical tensions surrounding the Baltic states' increasing detachment from Russian influence.

While Finnish investigators have yet to confirm the deliberate nature of the cable damage, senior Estonian officials have pointed out that it is unlikely to be an accident. "If you’re dragging an anchor, it can’t be that you don’t notice it," one official said, suggesting that the ship involved may have been operating intentionally outside of normal maritime protocol.

This incident is just the latest in a series of hybrid warfare tactics aimed at undermining NATO and EU countries. As tensions rise, NATO has stepped up its presence in the Baltic region. Swedish opposition parties have even called for consultations under NATO's Article 4, which allows for discussions if any NATO member believes its security, political independence, or territorial integrity is under threat. While this has yet to be triggered, the rhetoric is building.

Estonian officials, including Interior Minister Lauri Läänemets, have made it clear that Russia's shadow fleet is operating in the area, adding to a pattern of hybrid threats against neighboring NATO/EU states. "It’s time to drop the illusions and face it," Läänemets stated. As these gray zone actions continue to blur the line between conventional warfare and covert tactics, the Baltic region may be heading toward a larger confrontation.

The uncertainty of how to respond to these provocations is a key challenge. While the sabotage could be attributed to specific vessels or nations, proving intent remains difficult. Regardless, the region’s energy security is increasingly at risk, and NATO may soon face tough decisions on how to protect critical infrastructure from these hybrid threats.