In a dramatic conclusion to the 2024 election cycle, Rep. John Duarte (R-Calif.) conceded to Democrat Adam Gray in California’s 13th Congressional District on Tuesday, solidifying the Republican Party’s slim 220-215 majority in the House of Representatives for the 119th Congress. This razor-thin margin marks one of the closest in U.S. history and sets the stage for a tumultuous two years under Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.).
A Narrow Majority Narrows Further
The GOP’s fragile edge is poised to shrink even more in early 2025 due to upcoming resignations. Former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) has ruled out returning to Congress after his failed bid for attorney general. Rep. Mike Waltz (R-Fla.) will step down on January 20 to serve as national security adviser, and Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) is expected to leave for her role as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations. These departures will leave Republicans with a 217-215 majority until special elections in April.
This two-seat advantage gives Johnson and his leadership team no room for error. A single Republican defection could doom party-line votes, as a tie in the House means the measure fails. This precarious situation is compounded by the unpredictability of travel delays and illnesses, which could sideline members.
“Do the math,” Johnson told reporters Wednesday. “We have nothing to spare.”
Balancing a Tightrope Agenda
The slim margin presents significant challenges as Republicans aim to deliver on President-elect Donald Trump’s ambitious agenda in the first 100 days of his administration. Tax reform is a top priority, with the GOP eyeing an extension of the popular provisions of Trump’s 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, many of which are set to expire in 2025. Johnson plans to use budget reconciliation to fast-track the effort, but internal divisions over issues like the state and local tax (SALT) deduction cap could derail the plan.
Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) has already pledged to oppose any tax reform package that does not address SALT, a sentiment echoed by other Republicans in high-tax states like New York and California. With such slim margins, their resistance could prove insurmountable.
“I’ve been very clear: I won’t support a tax bill that does not lift the cap on SALT,” Lawler said last week. “Given the margins in the House, this is something that there’s gonna have to be a good-faith negotiation on.”
Managing a Fractured Conference
The tight margins also empower hardline conservatives, such as those in the House Freedom Caucus, who have previously derailed GOP efforts with procedural protests and policy objections. Some members, like Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.), have signaled a willingness to continue disrupting party leadership.
“If it’s morally correct, if it’s something that I really believe in... I will [hold up business],” Burchett said.
However, other Republicans, such as Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.), expect smoother legislative sailing under Trump, whose priorities often align with the Freedom Caucus.
“What we’re going to have under Trump is leadership from the Executive Branch that is in alignment with... the Freedom Caucus,” Ogles said.
Democrats, meanwhile, see opportunity in the GOP’s thin majority, emphasizing full attendance to capitalize on any Republican absences or defections.
“It’s important for every member to come to work and to do their job,” said Rep. Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.), highlighting the importance of unity in opposing Republican initiatives.
The Path Ahead
Special elections in April for the three vacant Republican seats — all in reliably red districts — could provide some breathing room for the GOP by late spring. Until then, Johnson will need to carefully manage his fractured conference to avoid legislative chaos.
“It’s impossible to have a slimmer majority, which creates serious challenges,” said Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.). “But... we have Trump as president. Folks... are going to have to think twice because we have Trump in the White House.”
