As President-elect Donald Trump prepares for his second term in office, legal experts and political observers are closely monitoring the U.S. Supreme Court for potential retirements that could shift the balance of the nation's highest judicial body. With the Republican Party poised to maintain control of the Senate, Trump could have the opportunity to nominate replacements for any justices who choose to retire, further consolidating conservative influence on the court.
Among the justices whose retirement is being speculated are Clarence Thomas, the court's oldest member at 76, and Samuel Alito, 74. Both were appointed by Republican presidents—Thomas by George H.W. Bush in 1991 and Alito by George W. Bush in 2005—and are considered key members of the court's conservative majority. If either of them steps down, President Trump would likely have the power to nominate a replacement, potentially reinforcing the ideological shift in the court.
Trump’s First-Term Legacy and the Conservative Majority
During his first term, President Trump successfully nominated three conservative justices to the Supreme Court: Neil Gorsuch (2017), Brett Kavanaugh (2018), and Amy Coney Barrett (2020). Together, these appointments helped solidify a conservative majority on the court, a majority that was pivotal in overturning Roe v. Wade in 2022 and in recent decisions expanding presidential powers.
The court's conservative lean has raised concerns among liberals, especially after key rulings on issues like abortion and executive authority. With a potential second-term vacancy, Trump could further entrench conservative ideals in the judiciary for years to come.
Speculation Surrounding Retirement
The speculation around potential retirements centers on Thomas and Alito, both of whom are in their mid-70s and could be seeking to retire while Trump is still in office, allowing him to appoint younger, long-lasting conservative replacements. Given that the next president could be a Democrat, some believe this may be their final opportunity to handpick their successors.
A similar situation unfolded during Trump’s first term when Justice Anthony Kennedy, often considered a swing vote, retired in 2018. His departure opened the door for Kavanaugh, solidifying the court’s rightward tilt. This pattern of strategic retirements to influence the court’s ideological composition is not new—Democratic calls for Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg to retire in 2013, when she was 80, also reflected the political maneuvering surrounding Supreme Court appointments.
Potential Trump Nominees
If there is an opening on the Supreme Court in Trump’s second term, legal experts have identified several potential candidates who could follow in the footsteps of his previous appointees.
Judge James Ho: Nominated by Trump in 2017, Judge Ho sits on the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, covering Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi. A former Department of Justice lawyer, state solicitor general, and private practice attorney, Ho has built a reputation as a strong conservative voice on the bench. Born in Taipei, Taiwan, he would also add diversity to the court’s traditionally homogeneous makeup.
Judge Stuart Kyle Duncan: Also serving on the 5th Circuit, Judge Duncan was nominated in 2018 and has extensive experience in private practice, government service, and higher education. He previously served as general counsel for The Becket Fund for Religious Liberty, a non-profit group advocating for religious freedoms.
Judge Amul Thapar: A judge on the 6th Circuit, covering Michigan, Ohio, Kentucky, and Tennessee, Thapar was nominated by President George W. Bush in 2007. Like Ho and Duncan, Thapar has a background in both private practice and government service. He is also known for his academic involvement, having taught law at both Harvard and the University of Kentucky.
Each of these judges is under 55 years old, suggesting that Trump would have the opportunity to appoint a younger generation of conservatives who could influence the court for decades.
Liberal Concerns and Calls for Retirement
Meanwhile, some liberal voices are urging other justices to consider stepping down while Democrats still hold the presidency and control of the Senate. In 2024, there have been calls for Justice Sonia Sotomayor, who is 69, to retire while Democrats are in a strong position to confirm a replacement. However, these calls have not gained traction within the Senate Judiciary Committee, where Democrats are reluctant to push for retirements.
The example of Justice Ginsburg’s refusal to retire during President Obama’s tenure remains a cautionary tale for liberals. Ginsburg’s decision to stay on the court until her death in 2020 allowed President Trump to appoint Barrett, flipping the court's balance from liberal to conservative.
As speculation intensifies about potential retirements in the coming years, the fate of the Supreme Court remains a key battleground in American politics. Whether Thomas, Alito, or any other justice decides to step down, the outcome could have significant implications for the future of U.S. law, particularly on issues of abortion, executive power, and religious freedom.
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