The race to succeed Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) is entering a pivotal week as Senators John Thune (S.D.) and John Cornyn (Texas) make their final pitches ahead of a highly anticipated vote on Wednesday to determine the party’s next leader. With the Republican Party poised to take control of the Senate in the upcoming 119th Congress, both Thune and Cornyn are stepping up their efforts to secure support, signaling a bruising and competitive contest for the top job.
As Thune, the current Senate GOP whip, enters the final stretch with a slight edge in the race, the outcome remains uncertain. Sources close to the battle suggest that Thune's position as the party’s leading vote counter and his strong fundraising abilities make him a favorite, but Cornyn, a former whip and trusted ally of McConnell, has mounted a serious challenge. With just days to go, both senators are intensifying efforts to woo fellow GOP members, burning up the phone lines in search of backing.
"It’s Thune’s to lose, but Cornyn’s going to make it close," said one GOP aide familiar with the leadership dynamics. "It’s going to be bloody and rough, and money is going to matter."
Thune vs. Cornyn: A Battle of Experience and Alliances
Thune, a seasoned leader who has served as the party’s whip since 2017, is widely seen as the frontrunner. His reputation as an effective vote counter and a reliable fundraiser is bolstered by his aggressive campaigning for GOP Senate candidates in competitive races throughout 2024, raising more than $33 million across his own accounts and the party’s efforts. His recent work in battleground states, coupled with endorsements from key figures like Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) and Rep. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.), strengthens his position.
But Cornyn, who has spent over two decades in the Senate, is no slouch. Known for his pragmatism and ability to navigate the Senate's complexities, Cornyn has garnered significant support, particularly from conservative factions within the party. Having raised $26 million, including nearly $12 million for the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), Cornyn is also a respected fundraiser. His longstanding ties to McConnell and the party establishment give him a unique advantage, though he faces scrutiny from more conservative elements, especially due to his involvement in crafting bipartisan legislation like the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act after the 2022 Uvalde school shooting.
The Trump Factor: A Wildcard in the Race
One of the biggest unknowns in the leadership race is the role of President-elect Donald Trump. While neither Thune nor Cornyn has been a steadfast supporter of Trump’s "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) movement, both have worked to repair relationships with the president-elect over the past year. Thune, in particular, has made efforts to stay in the president’s good graces after Trump called for a primary challenge against him in 2022. Thune's outreach, including a meeting with Trump at Mar-a-Lago in March, has led many to believe that he has mended fences with the former president.
However, Trump’s influence remains uncertain. Thune has publicly stated that he believes it’s up to the members of the Senate to decide who should lead, though he acknowledged that Trump’s endorsement would carry weight if the president-elect chose to get involved. "The president obviously has tremendous influence, and if he chooses to use it, I think it’s his prerogative," Thune told Fox News on Wednesday.
Cornyn, for his part, has also worked to maintain ties with Trump, supporting the president-elect earlier in the 2024 cycle and attending rallies in Texas and Nevada. However, his involvement in bipartisan negotiations, such as the gun control measure, remains a potential liability in a Republican Party that has increasingly embraced Trump’s influence.
A Divisive Contest
While Thune and Cornyn battle it out for support, the third contender in the race, Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), is not expected to survive beyond the first ballot. Despite his strong fundraising record and his leadership of the NRSC, Scott is seen as a long shot in the leadership contest.
Among GOP members, much of the discussion surrounding the leadership race is focused less on fundraising and more on how the next leader will manage the party’s internal dynamics. With McConnell’s departure signaling the end of an era, many Republicans are eager for change, particularly on issues like Senate procedure and committee operations. Some see Cornyn as more open to reforms that could address frustrations on the right, while others believe Thune’s approach offers a more stable, traditional leadership style.
Thune also has some structural advantages: He is nearly a decade younger than Cornyn, at 63 years old, and isn’t up for reelection until 2028, whereas Cornyn faces a potentially difficult primary challenge in 2026 from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R). The prospect of defending his position in a contentious primary could complicate Cornyn’s ability to lead effectively in the short term.
The Final Stretch
The race for Senate GOP leader is now a waiting game, as Thune and Cornyn work furiously to shore up support in the final days before the vote. The outcome of the secret ballot, which will take place next Wednesday, will set the tone for the Senate Republican conference as it heads into a new era of leadership and legislative battles.
For Thune, it appears to be his race to lose, with allies like Daines and Mullin helping to solidify his standing. "This leadership election has been going on a long time. Now, it’s a closing argument," said Mullin, who is confident that Thune will emerge victorious. "I don’t see how Cornyn gets there."
However, as the dynamics shift and new alliances are formed, the coming days will be crucial in determining whether Thune’s fundraising and party loyalty will be enough to secure him the leadership mantle, or whether Cornyn’s ties to the conservative base and willingness to reform the party’s operations will give him the edge.
