In 1960, John F. Kennedy made a defining statement about his candidacy for president: “I am not the Catholic candidate for president.” Despite this, approximately three-quarters of Catholic voters chose him, making a significant impact on the election’s outcome. Kennedy’s success marked a pivotal moment in American politics, as Catholic voters began to exercise their political influence in ways that deviated from the norm.
However, in the decades that followed, the Catholic vote became increasingly reflective of the broader electorate. Catholics no longer formed a distinct voting bloc; rather, their preferences mirrored the national trends, oscillating between parties depending on the political context. Yet, something changed in 2024 that caused a dramatic shift in how Catholics voted. For the first time in decades, exit polls showed Donald Trump outperforming Kamala Harris among Catholic voters by a significant margin—18 points—compared to his 2020 loss to Joe Biden, where he trailed by 5 points. What explains this dramatic reversal, and what might it signal for the future of Catholic political alignment in America?
Kamala Harris and the Catholic Vote: A Disconnect?
As Stephen White, a fellow in Catholic studies at the Ethics and Public Policy Center, explains, the shift in Catholic support in 2024 can be traced to the growing ideological gap between Catholic voters and Kamala Harris. Harris’s stances on key issues, such as abortion and religious liberty, appear to have alienated many Catholic voters who hold more traditional views on these topics.
For White, it’s clear that Harris was never going to resonate with Catholic voters in the same way a more moderate or conservative Democratic candidate might. "She was a candidate who was always going to struggle with Catholic voters," White argues. The Catholic Church’s teachings on the sanctity of life and the dignity of the human person are often at odds with progressive stances on abortion and gender issues, making Harris’s positions a potential barrier for many devout Catholics. These voters, in turn, appeared to recognize what I argued in September: Kamala Harris was not the Catholic candidate.
This was particularly significant in light of Trump’s messaging, which sought to position himself as a defender of Catholic values. In a post-election memo, CatholicVote president Brian Burch noted that Trump’s promise to “protect Catholic families and institutions from the divisive overreach by the Harris-Biden administration” played a crucial role in securing his win among Catholic voters. This sentiment resonated with many Catholics who felt that their values were under siege by the progressive wing of the Democratic Party, particularly when it came to issues like religious freedom and the protection of life.
The Latino Catholic Vote: A Key Factor?
One of the central questions raised by this shift in Catholic voting behavior is how much of it can be attributed to the Latino Catholic population. Latinos, particularly those who identify as Catholic, have traditionally been a significant swing vote in American politics. In 2020, Joe Biden won Latino Catholics by a considerable margin, but in 2024, exit polls suggested a noticeable shift towards Trump, particularly among those who leaned more socially conservative or who felt alienated by the Democratic Party’s increasingly progressive stance on cultural issues.
White cautions that we still don’t have all the data to fully understand how the Catholic vote broke down in 2024, nor can we definitively say how much of this shift was driven by the Latino vote. Nevertheless, the potential impact of Latino Catholics cannot be underestimated. As White observes, the growing influence of Latino voters who hold more conservative views on social issues could be a decisive factor in shaping the future of the Catholic vote. How this demographic aligns with either party will likely be one of the key political questions of the coming years.
A Long-Term Trend or a One-Off?
While the 2024 election signals a significant shift in Catholic voting behavior, it’s important to recognize that this change may not be permanent. White and other analysts caution that, despite Trump’s success in winning Catholic support, Republicans should not take this bloc for granted. Catholic voters have a history of shifting their allegiances based on changing political dynamics, and a lot depends on how the parties address the concerns and values of this diverse and influential group.
One of the central issues driving Catholic discontent with the Democratic Party is what Brian Burch describes as the “growing influence of the progressive wing of the party that is openly hostile to people of faith.” For many Catholics, the party’s increasingly vocal stance on abortion and religious liberty has created a disconnect, leading them to feel that their deeply held beliefs are being sidelined. If the Democratic Party does not reassess its position on these issues, it could continue to lose Catholic support to Republicans, as long as the GOP maintains its appeal to socially conservative voters.
That being said, the Catholic vote is far from monolithic. As White notes, there are many factors that influence how Catholics vote, including ethnicity, region, age, and the importance of religious practice in their lives. The swing towards Trump in 2024 could be seen as a temporary reaction to the particular dynamics of this election cycle, rather than a permanent realignment.
Conclusion: The Future of the Catholic Vote
The 2024 election marks a notable departure from recent trends in Catholic voting behavior, with a decisive shift toward Donald Trump, particularly among more conservative or traditional Catholic voters. While the exact reasons for this shift are still being analyzed, it is clear that issues like abortion, religious freedom, and the progressive direction of the Democratic Party have played a central role in shaping Catholic voters’ preferences.
Moving forward, both parties will need to grapple with the growing influence of Catholic voters—especially those who feel that their values are increasingly out of step with the party lines. For Republicans, the challenge will be maintaining this support while ensuring that Trump’s appeal does not become an insurmountable dependency. For Democrats, the question is how to reengage Catholic voters, particularly Latino Catholics, who may feel alienated by the party’s current direction on cultural and moral issues.
As Stephen White cautions, the Catholic vote should not be taken for granted. Its trends are malleable, and what has changed before could change again. How both parties respond to the evolving concerns of Catholic voters will be a key factor in determining the political landscape in the years to come.
