Two things saved Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) from a massive upset six years ago: voters who’d recently moved to the state, and rural Texans.
In many ways, the state’s rapid population growth has caused expected growing pains — stressed infrastructure, rising housing costs, and so much expansion — but politically, Texas remains a solid but not overwhelmingly GOP state.
There are many questions about Texas’ direction and the obstacles that surely lie ahead. But the constant on which Texas Republicans have been able to rely is the inevitability of rural voters.
Without rural Texas — counties with 50,000 or fewer people — Donald Trump would have lost the state in 2020 by 230,000 votes and Cruz would’ve lost to Beto O’Rourke in 2018 by 391,000 votes; Gov. Greg Abbott would’ve only won by 156,000 votes in the 2022 midterm election.
The math is simple and the reality obvious: save for the enigma that is Abbott, Republicans lose at the top of the ticket without the GOP’s electoral bell cow. Cruz is capping off a 53-stop get-out-the-vote bus tour across the state, 35 of which have been in rural Texas.
“Rural Texas is incredibly important. In 2018, we won 75 percent of the vote here in Washington County. I hope we drive that up even higher,” Cruz told The Texan at a campaign stop in Brenham. “I'd like to see 80 to 85 percent and we need a big turnout. We need a big turnout in rural Texas and we need a big turnout in East Texas and West Texas.”
During the rally, hosted alongside Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR) and state Sen. Lois Kolkhorst (R-Brenham), Cruz urged the crowd to vote and vote early — and most of them raised their hands when asked if they’d already cast their ballots. Cruz implored that their votes, and the votes of other communities like theirs, are needed to cancel out the “People’s Republic of Travis County” and the nude sunbathers at “Hippie Hollow.”
Through 11 days of early voting, rural voters were the only geographical group that had turned out in larger numbers than they did four years ago; rural voters modeled as Republicans and Independents are up in turnout, while rural Democrats are down.
Overall, Republicans are performing at 7.7 points higher than they did through the same point four years ago — much of which is due to depressed Democratic turnout.
This isn’t just good for Cruz — who’s polled anywhere between seven points up on Congressman Colin Allred (D-TX-32) or tied in recent weeks — it’s a godsend. That doesn’t mean something whacky cannot happen on Election Day, and it doesn’t guarantee that Trump voters also vote for him down the ballot. But the same environment that took him to the edge six years ago just doesn’t appear to exist.
That’s a relief for Cruz’s camp, but there are other reasons to sweat.
First, there’s the simple fact of political gravity. Cruz is a top target for national Democrats — a fact he’s shouted from the rooftops any chance he gets — and with that, opposition naturally chips away at the targeted figure. Political fatalism is a farce; look no further than the “demographics is destiny” belief that immigration will inevitably turn Texas blue. It hasn’t happened yet, but vulnerability and the passage of time present an opportunity.
Second, everyone knows how they feel about Cruz. They either love him or they hate him. There’s not much room to give in either direction. That leaves one real option: make the opposition untenable.
Cruz and company slapped Allred as a supporter of biological males competing in female sports, the GOP’s favorite wedge issue this cycle — and it worked, so well that it drew a face-to-camera response from Allred, who is nigh-on impossible to get off-message.
Third, Cruz has been blown away by Allred on the financial front. From 2019 through mid-2023, Cruz raised $32 million into his campaign account, and to that point had $4.8 million left on hand. In that same report, Allred had $5.7 million.
Since that report, Allred has outraised Cruz in their campaign accounts — $71 million to $44 million.
Allred has run a markedly different campaign than O’Rourke did in 2018 — heavy on paid media and lighter on the campaign stumping. As of October 15, Allred outspent Cruz and all GOP-aligned entities on media buys $52 million to $38 million — and that doesn’t include the outside Democratic groups who’ve parachuted in.
The Democrat hopes to ramp up urban and suburban turnout even more than six years ago, focusing heavily on abortion and opposition to Donald Trump while keeping the top of his ticket at arm’s length.
Meanwhile, Cruz has been on a months-long sprint to equate Allred first with President Joe Biden and now with Vice President Kamala Harris — two figures who not only poll poorly in ruby-red rural Texas, but motivate the opposition immensely.
The geographic wildcard in this, something on which Republicans have been pushing the envelope for a few years now, is South Texas. The red-hued shift is real, but it’s up for debate just how pronounced it currently is. Any gains made can offset suburban losses for the GOP, and they’re counting on it.
One GOP strategist told The Texan recently that “Hispanics in South Texas are starting to vote like rural voters.” That shift is still far from complete, if it does eventually reach that pinnacle. But the region is undeniably competitive.
Cruz said last week, “I'll tell you, we're making inroads. South Texas is turning red. It's really exciting to see the Rio Grande Valley turning red, and I'll tell you, we're fighting in the suburbs.”
“We're fighting in the cities. All across the country, we're seeing African American men who are realizing that Kamala Harris and Colin Allred's policy agenda has failed them. We're seeing them moving red, and we're seeing Hispanic voters all over Texas moving Republican as well. I'm excited about Election Day.”
Cruz has been anxiously awaiting this moment, the one he’s known was coming now for six years — a stressful election night sweating it out while the votes roll in.
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