Ted Cruz defeats Colin Allred to win 3rd term

The closely watched race that began with uncertainty following the 2018 general election is now officially decided. Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) secured re-election on Tuesday, defeating Democratic challenger Colin Allred (D-TX-32) and winning another six years in the U.S. Senate. Cruz's margin of victory grew by 3.5 points compared to his narrow 2018 win. Fox News called the race shortly before 8:30 p.m., with Cruz leading Allred by 6 points statewide.

At his election night watch party in Houston, Cruz addressed his supporters, saying, "I want to congratulate Colin Allred on a hard-fought campaign. And to those who didn’t support me, I want to assure you: I will fight for your jobs, your safety, and your constitutional rights. But tonight, the people of Texas have spoken...Texas will remain Texas."

Cruz had defeated Democrat Beto O’Rourke by 2.5 points in 2018, and his stronger performance in 2024 reflects a very different political environment. Cruz’s team had predicted a 6-point victory, which turned out to be accurate.

Allred, who out-raised Cruz $71 million to $44 million since mid-2023, made a significant investment in television ads throughout the campaign. His approach, in contrast to O’Rourke’s 2018 strategy, played to his strengths—fundraising and staying on message—but it ultimately fell short in challenging Cruz. Allred emphasized abortion rights as a central issue, hoping it would galvanize Democratic voters and turn the tide against Cruz. While abortion is a key issue for many Democrats, it wasn’t enough to overcome a backdrop of national challenges, including an unpopular Democratic president, inflation, and ongoing concerns over the southern border.

The deeply conservative tilt of Texas also made Allred’s path to victory an uphill battle. On the other hand, Cruz and the GOP capitalized on messaging wins, especially regarding the issue of biological males competing in women’s sports—an issue on which Allred’s record proved vulnerable.

Despite being outspent and facing significant negative perceptions, Cruz’s campaign, along with the GOP's structural advantages, were enough to secure a decisive victory. Now, Cruz begins his third term in the Senate, positioning himself for a potential leadership role on the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, should Republicans retake the chamber. This win also gives him a platform to launch another presidential bid in 2028, should he decide to pursue it.

For Allred, the loss likely means a time of political uncertainty. Soon to be out of Congress, his future is unclear. However, following in the footsteps of former opponent Beto O’Rourke, Allred could look to a gubernatorial run in the future if he chooses to stay in politics.