With the dust from last week’s elections barely settled, the race for Speaker of the Texas House has intensified. Behind the scenes, phone lines are buzzing as Republicans jockey for position, while key players position themselves to seize the gavel. What seemed like a routine leadership election is quickly shaping up to be a bitter, high-stakes contest that could determine the future direction of the state’s legislature.
Republicans Gain Ground, but Leadership Fight Intensifies
In last Tuesday’s election, Republicans gained two seats in the Texas House, bringing their total to 88, while Democrats dropped to 62 seats. While that shift in numbers may seem modest, it has had a major impact on the scramble for power in the lower chamber. As the elections concluded, the leadership race, long simmering behind closed doors, suddenly came to a boil.
State Representative David Cook (R-Mansfield), a vocal critic of incumbent Speaker Dade Phelan, wasted no time in sending an email to his fellow Republicans. In the email, Cook laid out three paths forward for the caucus:
Support a Reform Candidate: Cook argued for a "reform candidate" who had already earned the trust of over half of the Republican Caucus, emphasizing the need for change and unity.
Speculate on an Alternative Candidate: Cook acknowledged that a new contender could emerge, though he warned that unifying the caucus behind such a candidate would be difficult.
Re-elect the Current Speaker: Cook labeled this option as the worst, warning that re-electing Phelan would require the backing of only a few Republicans and a majority of Democrats — a scenario Cook believes would undermine the GOP’s hold on power.
In his email, Cook expressed his firm belief that “we cannot continue to govern effectively without the Republican majority selecting our Speaker.” He further claimed that the current Speaker could not win the endorsement of the Republican Caucus based on the list of supporters he had at the time.
The Standoff: Who Has the Votes?
As of now, Cook has 45 public supporters — down slightly after one of his backers, Rep. Steve Kinard (R-Granbury), lost his re-election bid. Another two members have reportedly joined Cook’s ranks, but remain anonymous. Despite this, the support has not significantly grown since Cook first revealed his list in September, and his path to 76 votes — the magic number needed to secure the Speaker’s position — remains uncertain.
Phelan, on the other hand, remains defiant. In a response to Cook’s email, Phelan claimed that Cook did not have enough support to become the caucus’s nominee. Phelan also pointed out that Cook had not even garnered the most votes in a recent, unsanctioned meeting to endorse a Speaker candidate — a gathering that had caused deep rifts within the GOP caucus. Phelan’s camp maintains that he has the votes necessary to secure a third term as Speaker, though neither side has released a complete list of their supporters.
The lack of transparency has led to a public standoff, with both camps accusing the other of lacking the necessary votes. The situation is further complicated by the fact that a secret ballot process will be used in the December 7 Republican Caucus meeting, which means neither side can definitively claim victory until the votes are counted.
The Insider Dynamics: A Test of Party Unity
The selection of the Speaker is usually a more procedural matter, but in today’s charged political environment, it has become a full-fledged power struggle. The process for selecting a Speaker in Texas was formalized in 2018, following the retirement of Speaker Joe Straus. That year, the GOP caucus created a system where members would vote for a Speaker candidate who had been officially endorsed by the party. However, that process — designed to avoid the fractured coalitions seen under Straus’s leadership — has now become a point of contention itself.
Cook’s supporters are vocal in their criticism of Phelan, citing a lack of progress on key conservative issues under his leadership. Some Republicans, frustrated with Phelan’s approach, argue that the current Speaker has lost touch with the party’s base and is too willing to compromise with Democrats.
Phelan’s critics also point to his leadership on the budget and other legislative issues, accusing him of prioritizing incremental changes over bold reforms. Yet Phelan’s allies contend that he is the only candidate capable of holding together a diverse and fractured GOP caucus. They argue that Cook’s push for a new direction risks deepening divisions within the party and jeopardizing legislative progress in the upcoming session.
Democratic Dynamics: A Potential Wildcard
While the Republican infighting grabs most of the headlines, the Democratic caucus could play a pivotal role in determining the next Speaker. Traditionally, Democrats have supported Phelan, as he has been more willing than most GOP leaders to include them in the legislative process. However, after the election, Texas House Democrats held a conference call in which no formal decision was made regarding their endorsement of Phelan.
Phelan has not promised to continue appointing Democrats to committee chairmanships, a move that has helped secure their backing in the past. In the last session, just eight Democrats received committee chairs, and many others were left with little to show for their efforts. This has led to growing discontent within the Democratic ranks, with some members increasingly unwilling to play ball with Republicans.
State Rep. Ana-Maria Ramos (D-Dallas), a vocal critic of Phelan, has launched her own bid for Speaker. Ramos frames her candidacy as part of a broader resistance to Republican control of the state, citing what she sees as a rollback of reproductive rights, the attack on public schools, and the refusal to enact gun safety reforms. Though her candidacy may not garner enough support to win the gavel, it could significantly disrupt the math for both Cook and Phelan, particularly if she attracts even a handful of Democratic votes.
Joining Ramos in the race is veteran legislator Rep. John Bryant (D-Dallas), a seasoned parliamentary strategist. Bryant’s candidacy is seen as a deliberate effort to challenge the current system and leverage his considerable legislative experience to disrupt the Speaker race. While neither Ramos nor Bryant is expected to win the Speaker’s gavel, their bids could tip the balance in favor of one of the Republican contenders, depending on how they play their cards.
The High Stakes of the Speaker Race
With both sides unable to solidify a clear path to victory, the race for Speaker is shaping up to be one of the most closely watched and consequential in recent Texas history. The outcome of this contest will set the tone for the upcoming legislative session, with major implications for the state’s policy direction, particularly on issues like abortion, education, and gun control.
As the December 7 GOP caucus meeting draws near, the pressure is mounting on both Cook and Phelan to shore up their support. For now, the contest remains a waiting game, with both sides trying to outmaneuver the other in a game of political chess. The wildcards — including potential Democratic defections and the ongoing power struggle within the GOP — ensure that this race will remain fluid and unpredictable until the final vote is cast.
