As the 2024 midterm elections continue to unfold, control of the U.S. House of Representatives remains up in the air, with numerous critical races too close to call. Both Republicans and Democrats are anxiously awaiting the final results as a number of key battleground districts remain in play, leaving lawmakers and voters uncertain about which party will claim the majority when the new Congress convenes in January.
As of Friday morning, Republicans had secured 216 seats in the House, according to Decision Desk HQ, while Democrats were trailing with 204 seats. Fifteen races across the country are still undecided. In those contests, Democrats currently lead in eight, while Republicans are ahead in seven, but with ballots still being counted, the final outcome is far from clear.
Despite the uncertainty, Republicans are already claiming victory, with Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) confidently asserting that the House will remain under GOP control. He has already launched his bid to retain the Speaker's gavel when the new Congress convenes. Democrats, however, are holding out hope that they can flip enough of the remaining seats to win a razor-thin majority. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) remarked Thursday that it "has yet to be decided who will control" the House, pointing to the ongoing counting of ballots in states like Oregon, Arizona, and California.
Key Races Still in Play
Several races that were initially deemed safe for one party have turned into tight contests, with numerous districts still too close to call. Here’s a look at the most closely watched races that could determine the balance of power:
California’s 21st Congressional District
Rep. Jim Costa (D), a 10-term lawmaker, is facing a surprising challenge from Republican Michael Maher, a former FBI agent. Costa, who was expected to easily win in this district, is currently leading Maher by just 1.1 percentage points, or 1,476 votes, with 62.7% of the vote reported. A Maher victory would flip the district, which had been solidly Democratic, red.
California’s 9th Congressional District
Rep. Josh Harder (D) is locked in a tight race with Republican Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln. Harder is leading by a slim 1.4 percentage points, with 56% of ballots reported. The district, which Biden won by 12.6 points in 2020, had been rated “likely Democrat,” but the close race has thrown that assumption into question.
California’s 47th Congressional District
This race to replace Rep. Katie Porter (D), who vacated the seat to run for the Senate, has come down to the wire. Republican Scott Baugh, a former Assembly minority leader, is leading Democrat Dave Min, a state senator, by just 616 votes—0.2 percentage points—with 78.7% of ballots counted. A Baugh victory would flip the district, which had been a Democratic stronghold since 2003.
Alaska’s At-Large Congressional District
Rep. Mary Sattler Peltola (D) is fighting to hold onto her seat in Alaska’s at-large district, where she is currently trailing Republican Nick Begich in the ranked-choice voting race. Begich holds a 49.6% to 45.5% lead with 74% of votes reported, making this one of the most contested races in the state. The district had been considered a key target for Republicans, who see it as essential for regaining the House majority.
Arizona’s 6th Congressional District
Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R) is barely clinging to a lead over former state lawmaker Kirsten Engel (D) in a race that has been nearly neck-and-neck. With 82% of votes counted, Ciscomani leads by just 435 votes, or 0.1 percentage points. This district is one of the most competitive in the nation, having been rated a “toss-up” by the Cook Political Report.
Oregon’s 5th Congressional District
Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R) is at risk of losing her seat to Democratic state Rep. Janelle Bynum. Bynum is leading Chavez-DeRemer by 2.5 percentage points with 84.4% of votes counted. A Bynum victory would flip the district blue, a significant win for Democrats in a district that had backed Biden in 2020.
California’s 27th Congressional District
Rep. Mike Garcia (R) is facing off against Democrat George Whitesides in a race that could see the district, which broke for Biden by 12.4 points in 2020, flip. Garcia currently holds a slim 1.4 percentage point lead with 76.1% of ballots counted. This district has been a major battleground, with Democrats eyeing it as a top pickup opportunity.
Washington’s 3rd Congressional District
Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) is holding a 3.1 percentage point lead over Republican Joe Kent with nearly 95% of the vote in. The district, which Trump won by 4 points in 2020, has seen a major push from both parties, with Gluesenkamp Perez narrowly defeating Kent by less than 1% in 2022.
California’s 49th Congressional District
Rep. Mike Levin (D) is holding a 2.2 percentage point lead over Republican Matt Gunderson in this district, where Biden won by 11.4 percentage points in 2020. Though still uncalled, the race is leaning toward Levin, who has served in the House for three terms.
Other Races to Watch
Several other races remain in play, with the final outcome likely to shift the balance of power in the House. These include contests in California's 39th and 45th districts, Colorado's 8th district, and Arizona's 6th district, among others. All eyes are on these crucial battlegrounds, where even small margins could make a significant difference in the overall makeup of the House.
Looking Ahead
With control of the House still hanging in the balance, both parties are gearing up for the final push in these tight races. As ballots continue to be counted, the outcome remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: the battle for the House will continue into the final days before the 2024 Congress convenes.
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