The 2024 presidential race has seen enough shocking events transpire in a few short months to fill an entire calendar year, but that doesn’t mean there won’t be a much-talked about October surprise looming in the final weeks of the campaign.
Each of the past two presidential cycles have been marked by an October surprise, including the “Access Hollywood” tape along with the Comey letter in 2016 and then questions around a laptop belonging to Hunter Biden in 2020.
Here are five potential October surprises that could emerge this year.
The emergence of new video or audio
Each of the last two presidential elections have been marked by the emergence of new audio or video footage through news reports.
In 2016, it was the “Access Hollywood” tape in which Trump was heard bragging about groping women, which nearly ended his White House bid that year. In 2020, it was the Hunter Biden laptop that featured controversial images of President Biden’s son.
For Harris, the risk of new audio or video coming to light centers around her past policy positions.
News outlets have been focused on some of the policies Harris backed during her 2020 presidential bid, when she said she supported a ban on fracking and backed decriminalizing illegally crossing the border. Additional audio or video of her as a presidential candidate, prosecutor or senator could cause new headaches for her campaign. She has distanced herself from those views during the 2024 campaign.
Trump’s ability to shock the general electorate has waned over the near-decade he’s spent in the political spotlight with each incendiary comment he makes at rallies and on social media.
Even in 2016, Trump managed to quickly recover from the “Access Hollywood” scandal in a matter of days.
But video and audio of closed-door remarks by Trump to donors, for example, could create a firestorm or provide fodder for the Harris campaign, such as when the former president promised wealthy donors tax cuts in a potential second term.
The significance of a damaging news report was on display last month when CNN reported on posts North Carolina gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson, who Trump endorsed, made on an online pornography forum between 2008 and 2012, including that he supported slavery and called himself a “Black Nazi.”
A major weather event
The devastation of Hurricane Helene in recent days was a prime example of how a significant weather event could upend the campaign in the coming weeks.
Helene ravaged swaths of Florida, Georgia and North Carolina, taking out critical infrastructure and cutting off power for millions of people in those states. White House homeland security adviser Liz Sherwood-Randall told reporters Monday as many as 600 people were still unaccounted for.
The political impacts were immediate: Harris cut short a west coast campaign swing to return to Washington for a storm briefing. She is expected to tour storm damage in the coming days, while Trump visited Georgia to see the aftermath on Monday.
There is also the possibility that the storm damage could hinder early voting, particularly in North Carolina and Georgia, where early in-person voting is set to begin in the coming weeks. Both of those states are closely contested and are expected to help determine the winner of November’s election.
Hurricane season lasts into November, leaving open the possibility of another major storm along the Gulf Coast. And White House officials in particular have warned that climate change has led to more damaging, more intense storms that could wreak havoc on the campaign.
More political violence
One of the gravest potential October surprises would be violence targeting candidates, election workers, staff or other officials.
Trump has been at the center of two attempted assassinations in recent months, ratcheting up fears of political divisions turning to violence. He was grazed by a bullet at a July rally, and an alleged gunman camped out along the perimeter of one of his golf club’s in September before a Secret Service agent fired at him.
A Virginia man was arrested in late July for allegedly making death threats against Harris.
NBC News reported in September that the FBI was investigating after election officials in at least six states received suspicious packages.
“I’m most concerned about vote counting and election judges and violence. There’s been a pretty clear pattern of threats about who gets to count votes,” John Murphy, a professor at the University of Illinois who studies political rhetoric, said in a recent interview.
But calls to lower the political temperature after each of those assassination attempts have mostly been futile, with Trump in particular ramping up the personal attacks on his opponents.
On Monday, the former president blamed Democrats for Secret Service staffing issues that forced Trump to relocate a Saturday rally in Wisconsin.
Another Trump-Harris debate
Perhaps one of the likeliest events that could shake-up the presidential race would be a second debate between Trump and Harris.
The two candidates squared off on stage on Sept. 10, but Trump has thus far declined to agree to a second debate, claiming he won his first debate with Harris and later suggesting it was too late for another one because early voting had already started.
Harris has repeatedly pushed for another debate with Trump in October. She has accepted an invite for a CNN-hosted debate on Oct. 23.
But some Trump allies have urged him to reconsider, and there is a lingering sense that the former president could still change his mind if he feels his poll numbers could use a boost or he needs to change the news cycle in the weeks before Election Day.
“As of right now this is the only debate that is left on the calendar. President Trump has made it pretty clear where he is,” senior Trump adviser Jason Miller said Monday. “There were other opportunities that Kamala Harris could have joined President Trump for previous debates.”
Broader war breaks out
While domestic events are most likely to have the most impact on the election, the risk of war breaking out abroad could also have serious ramifications on the campaign.
There are significant concerns about tensions in the Middle East, where Israel’s war with Hamas is approaching its one-year mark.
Separately, Israel decimated Hezbollah’s leadership with strikes over the past week, while also killing hundreds of civilians and forcing nearly 1 million people from their homes in Lebanon.
Israel reportedly told the White House on Monday it could launch a limited ground operation in Lebanon in the coming days, escalating fears of an all-out war between Israeli forces and Hezbollah, a designated terrorist organization.
Such a war could further inflame tensions among Democrats in particular, as the party has been divided over the Biden administration’s support for Israel over the past year despite its forces killing thousands of Palestinian civilians in Gaza in its war against Hamas.
It would also create a potential opening for Trump to go on offense on foreign policy. While Harris has argued Trump can’t be trusted to maintain alliances and that he has cozied up to dictators, the former president has pointed to conflicts in Ukraine and in the Middle East to argue the world is less safe than it was when he was in office.
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