Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) is outperforming former President Donald Trump in the latest poll released by the University of Texas, leading Congressman Colin Allred (D-TX-32) by 7 points.
The survey of 1,091 likely voters put both Trump and Cruz at 51 percent in their respective races. On the Democratic side, Allred registered at 44 percent support, two points below Vice President Kamala Harris; 3 percent of respondents said they’d vote either for Green Party presidential candidate Jill Stein or Libertarian Chase Oliver.
This is the largest margin Cruz has posted in recent weeks, and the RealClearPolitics polling average has Cruz at plus-4.5 percent.
Nearly 60 percent of those third-party voters said they prefer Harris to Trump.
Libertarian candidate for U.S. Senate Ted Brown registered at 4 percent support.
The net favorable-unfavorable ratings for each of the top four candidates put Trump at minus-1 percent, Cruz at plus-2 percent, Harris at minus-6 percent, and Allred at plus-1 percent. Allred’s undecideds have been large for most of the race as voters didn’t know enough about him to make a decision. But this poll shows that’s now changed: voters have started to make up their minds on the Democratic challenger — and Cruz’s negative ad blitz is working.
No question on the issue of biological males competing in female sports was included in the survey, despite Republicans across the country using it as their primary wedge issue. But internal polling has shown it to be the largest factor in moving undecided voters away from Allred and toward Cruz.
Where Allred’s undecided number used to be in double digits, sometimes close to 20 percent, they’re now down to 7 percent.
Notably, GOP candidate for vice president Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) registered a plus-8 percent rating compared to Walz’s minus-2 percent.
Harris leads Trump among Independents by 9 points while Trump leads by 5 points among Hispanics — one of the most sought-after demographics by both sides. On the Senate side, Allred leads among Independents by 12 points but Cruz leads by 2 points among Hispanics.
For Democrats, the biggest wedge issue is abortion. Polling has consistently shown it to be an advantage for them, particularly in proximity to the state’s status quo — where abortion is banned except to save the life of the mother.
Respondents in this poll broadly oppose the parameters of the state’s current law. Only 12 percent of respondents said abortion should be illegal in the case of rape and 13 percent in the case of incest. Opinions vary on when a limitation of those cases should be established, but it’s clear why Democrats believe this to be a winning issue for them.
And Republicans know they are at a disadvantage on it: Cruz dodged the rape and incest question during his debate with Allred on Tuesday, and both he and Trump have taken the position that it’s a question to be settled at the state level.
However, Republicans are onto something with their political strategy. A plurality of respondents, 45 percent, said the U.S. Supreme Court ruling that overturned Roe v. Wade as constitutional precedent, returning the question to one of state policy, was a good thing; 40 percent said it was a bad decision.
When asked about deporting illegal immigrants currently in the U.S., 58 percent said they agreed with that proposition while 35 percent disagreed.
The poll’s ballot tests for the presidential and Senate elections have a 2.97 percent margin of error.
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