Despite Donald Trump’s planned visit today, there’s not much evidence that New Mexico is a swing state. In fact, it’s time to throw buckets of cold water on a bunch of states that some partisans are hoping to be swing states — New Hampshire, Virginia, and Minnesota (although hilariously, adding Governor Tim Walz to the ticket has Kamala Harris running a few percentage points behind Joe Biden’s finish in the Gopher State in 2020). No, the race still comes down to the big seven — where Trump is looking good in the Sun Belt states and maybe okay in Pennsylvania.
As of this morning, more than 59 million Americans have voted in the 2024 election. According to the University of Florida Election Lab’s early voter tracker, 11.3 million of those folks are registered Democrats, and 10.5 million are registered Republicans. (Remember, 25 states report party-registration data for early votes, while the other half do not.) Read on.
Every now and then you’ll hear an argument that New Mexico is a potential swing state; today, Donald Trump will visit the state and hold a rally at the 10,000 square-foot Sunport Hangar at Albuquerque International Sunport. (Other large-event venues in the city were closed for repairs, and if you’re thinking of attending today, know that parking is limited.)
The case for New Mexico being a potential swing state strikes me as unpersuasive. Over at FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics, Trump has never led any poll in this state, and never been closer than four percentage points. The most recent poll, conducted by the Albuquerque Journal earlier this month, had Harris ahead, 50 percent to 41 percent.
According to the University of Florida Election Lab’s early voter tracker, 487,791 New Mexicans have already voted; 232,872, or 47.7 percent, are registered Democrats, 179,026, or 36.7 percent, are registered Republicans.
Nor is there much reason in the recent past to think that New Mexico is particularly fertile soil for Trump; he lost the state, 54 percent to 43 percent four years ago, and 48 percent to 40 percent in 2016.
One argument is that Trump is aiming to help Republican Yvette Herrell in her race against incumbent Democratic representative Gabe Vasquez in New Mexico’s second congressional district.
In 2022, Vasquez beat Herrell by just 1,350 votes in one of the tightest U.S. House races in the country. The Cook Political Report rates the rematch a toss-up. An Albuquerque Journal poll had the Democrat ahead, 49 percent to 45 percent.
New Mexico also has a U.S. Senate race this year, and the fact that this sentence is likely the first you’ve heard of it is a sign of how competitive it is. Incumbent Democratic senator Martin Heinrich is seeking a third term against Republican Nella Domenici, daughter of the late Republican senator Pete Domenici. On both FiveThirtyEight and RCP, Heinrich consistently leads by ten percentage points or more.
I know that one poll had Trump narrowly ahead of Harris in New Hampshire, but color me skeptical of a Republican victory on that front as well.
Just about every other poll on both FiveThirtyEight and RCP has Harris with a comfortable lead in New Hampshire. (And while Trump fans remember him outperforming his polls in 2016 and 2020, we should also keep in mind sometimes poll errors swing the other way. Two years ago, the final RealClearPolitics average in the U.S. Senate race in New Hampshire had Democrat Maggie Hassan just 1.4 percentage points ahead of Republican Don Bolduc. Hassan went on to win, 53.5 percent to 44.4 percent.)
The early vote in New Hampshire . . . is nonexistent; New Hampshire registered voters can vote absentee.
Down-ticket, note that New Hampshire does have a governor’s race this year, and it looks pretty good for Republicans; their nominee, former senator Kelly Ayotte, regularly enjoys a narrow lead over the Democratic nominee, former Manchester mayor Joyce Craig, on both FiveThirtyEight and RCP.
Four years ago, Joe Biden won the presidential election in Virginia, 54 percent to 44 percent. I see the argument that Trump will do better here than four years ago, but don’t see compelling evidence that the state will be particularly competitive. Trump will hold an event at the Salem Civic Center in the southwest corner of the state on Saturday.
Harris leads by 5.8 percentage points in the RCP average and 6.3 percentage points in the FiveThirtyEight average.
Virginia does not register voters by party, but note that of the nearly 1.7 million Virginians who have voted early so far, more than 55 percent are women and about 44 percent are men.
No, there isn’t much chance of Trump winning Minnesota’s ten electoral votes, but I do love pointing out that adding Tim Walz to the ticket has left Harris on pace to win Minnesota by a slightly narrower margin than Biden won in 2020. Biden won Minnesota by 7.2 percentage points, 52.4 percent to 45.2 percent.
Right now, Harris leads in the RCP average by 4.8 percentage points and the FiveThirtyEight average by 5.9 percentage points. Never mind helping Harris in the critical blue-wall states; there’s not much evidence that Walz has helped her at all in his home state.
What an absolute stinker of a running mate Walz turned out to be.
There are seven states that will decide the next president, the same seven you’ve been hearing about all year; I’d love to offer you some novelty or variety, but as you can see above, there really isn’t a strong contender for an eighth vital state.
Nevada: With more than 872,000 votes cast already, registered Republicans outnumber registered Democrats, 38.9 percent to 34.1 percent. As discussed earlier this week, this doesn’t guarantee a victory for Trump or any other Republican, but it’s an advantage the GOP likes having.
Arizona: More than 1.8 million Arizonans have cast their ballots already, and 41.3 percent are registered Republicans while 33.8 percent are registered Democrats. On paper, the polling for this state remains close, but just two of the last 16 surveys over at RCP have shown Harris ahead. Of the seven key swing states, this is probably the one that should stir the most confidence in the Trump campaign.
Wisconsin: More than 1.1 million Wisconsinites have voted early; the state does not break down its released data by party registration. This is one of only two battleground states that Harris leads, so this is arguably one of the two states out of the big seven she’s likely to win.
Michigan:More than 2.1 million Michigan voters have already cast ballots, and like Wisconsin, the state does not break down its released data by party registration. But it does break them down by gender, and like Virginia, women are voting early in considerably larger numbers — 1.2 million women, about 973,000 men, a 55 percent-44 percent split.
Pennsylvania: More than 1.5 million registered voters in the Keystone State have cast ballots already, and note that a “Pennsylvania judge on Wednesday sided with Donald Trump’s campaign and agreed to extend an in-person voting option in suburban Philadelphia where long lines on the final day led to complaints voters were being disenfranchised by an unprepared election office.”
Registered Democrats are outpacing registered Republicans so far, 56.9 percent to 32.4 percent.
Georgia: The early vote turnout in the Peach State has been phenomenal; you may recall President Biden insisting that the state’s election reform laws are “Jim Crow in the 21st Century,” “an atrocity,” and “Jim Eagle.” So far, more than 3.4 million Georgians have cast ballots in this election. The state does not break them down by party, but it does by race and gender. Almost 59 percent of the early vote is white, 26 percent is black, both Hispanics and Asians are a little under 3 percent each, and 9 percent are other/mixed or unknown. Once again, there is a 55-44 split in favor of the women.
The Atlanta Journal Constitution, today: “The highest early voting turnout in Georgia isn’t in Democratic strongholds such as DeKalb County or the fiercely contested suburbs that surround metro Atlanta. It’s in sparsely populated rural counties where Republicans often reign supreme.”
North Carolina: Much like Georgia, the early vote is going gangbusters in the Tarheel State. More than 3.6 million registered voters have already cast ballots, with 34 percent being registered Republicans, 32.7 percent registered Democrats, and 33 percent other or independent. Both Politico and Axios report this morning that the early vote turnout among black voters is causing heartburn for the Harris campaign.
For those who are rooting for a Trump victory, I would tell you the sunbelt states are all looking good so far, and Trump needs just one of the blue-wall states to flip his way, and right now RCP has him (very narrowly) ahead in Pennsylvania, as does FiveThirtyEight. When you’re getting dramatically outraised, outspent, and out-advertised from coast to coast, that’s a terrific place to be.
For those who are rooting for a Trump defeat, I would tell you that all Harris must do is perform one percentage point better than she’s doing right now in the RCP average in all of those big seven swing states — not exactly Mission: Impossible — and she would win Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Nevada, while North Carolina would be a toss-up tie.
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