Every now and then I’ll run across some reader who objects to my discussion of polls, contending that I shouldn’t cite the 538 average because it’s too friendly to Kamala Harris, or I shouldn’t cite the RealClearPolitics average because it’s too friendly to Donald Trump.
(I also hear objections to citing 538 because of “Nate Silver.” Nate Silver left 538 back in spring 2023. Silver now runs his own site, the Silver Bulletin. Try to keep up, man.)
RealClearPolitics and 538 do choose to include and reject different pollsters when putting together their averages; 538 doesn’t include surveys from Rasmussen Reports anymore. (Note that despite the firm’s name, founder Scott Rasmussen isn’t running the shop anymore, and he’s now conducting surveys for Napolitan News.)
But those decisions don’t add up to much of a difference, because both averages are including most of the same polls.
Here’s how they compare, as of Thursday morning:
National head-to-head average: The RealClearPolitics average has Harris ahead by 2 percentage points. The 538 average has Harris ahead by 2.7 percentage points.
(It doesn’t appear there’s much reason to worry about whether a national poll includes Jill Stein, Chase Oliver, or Cornel West or not; RealClearPolitics has Harris ahead by 2.1 percentage points with the minor candidates included.)
Arizona: The RealClearPolitics average has Trump ahead by 1.6 percentage points. The 538 average has Trump ahead by 1.1 percentage points.
Georgia: The RealClearPolitics average has Trump ahead by 2.2 percentage points. The 538 average has Trump ahead by 1.1 percentage points.
Michigan: The RealClearPolitics average has Harris ahead by 1.8 percentage points. The 538 average has Harris ahead by 2.5 percentage points.
Nevada: The RealClearPolitics average has Harris ahead by 0.4, or four-tenths of a percentage point. The 538 average has Harris ahead by 0.7, or seven-tenths of a percentage point.
North Carolina: The RealClearPolitics average has Trump ahead by 0.6, or sixth-tenths of a percentage point. The 538 average has Trump ahead by 0.3, or three-tenths of a percentage point.
Pennsylvania: The RealClearPolitics average has Harris ahead by 0.6, or six-tenths of a percentage point. The 538 average has Harris ahead by 1.3 percentage points.
Wisconsin: The RealClearPolitics average has Harris ahead by 0.7, or seven-tenths of a percentage point. The 538 average has Harris ahead by 2.2 percentage points.
Are RealClearPolitics averages showing better results for Trump? Yeah, but usually by less than a percentage point, and never by more than 1.5 percentage points, as in Wisconsin.
You’ll notice that the largest lead for either candidate in either average is 2.2 percentage points, for Trump in Georgia, and Harris in Wisconsin. That’s well within the margin of error for all or almost all of the polls conducted, and thus my conclusion is what I’ve been saying in every interview for the past few weeks — it’s a jump-ball race, and right now either candidate could win any of these seven swing states.
Saying that no swing state is out of reach for either candidate generates a seemingly endless chorus of “nuh-uh!” responses in my social-media feeds, and sometimes an insistence that a lead by about 2 percentage points in polling averages in late September is a sign that a candidate is “down well past the point of any sort of reasonable shot at winning.” Right, right. Every lead for your preferred candidate is insurmountable and ironclad, and every lead for the candidate you don’t like is about to crumble like a sandcastle when the tide is rolling in.
These seven states are very close. Right now it looks like Trump has a small lead or advantage in the Sun Belt states (Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina), Harris has a small lead or advantage in the Blue Wall states (Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin), and Nevada is anybody’s guess.
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