Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on Friday formally suspended his campaign and endorsed Donald Trump. There was a bit of nuance, as he said he was leaving his name on the ballot in noncompetitive states. But in swing states he will withdraw his name and urge his supporters to vote for Trump.
"Three great causes drove me to enter this race in the first place, and these are the principal causes that persuaded me to leave the Democratic Party and run as an independent, and now to throw my support to President Trump,” Kennedy said. “The causes were free speech, the war in Ukraine, and the war on our children.”
Kennedy delivered a winding speech from Arizona in which he discussed his growing disenchantment with the Democratic Party while criticizing Harris for, among other things, not sitting for interviews with the media.
The Kennedy campaign had been hinting at his exit for the last week, and he confirmed his endorsement of Trump in a filing submitted to a Pennsylvania court before the press conference began. He refused to bow out of the race entirely, however, sketching out a long-shot scenario in which Trump and Harris tie in the Electoral College.
In the unlikely event Kennedy can secure at least one electoral vote, he would be able to participate in what is known as a “contingent” election to decide the winner.
Much of Kennedy’s campaign had been characterized by a struggle to earn a spot on various state ballots, but the candidate, who left the Democratic primary to mount an independent run in October, also faced declining poll numbers and a dwindling campaign war chest.
Kennedy spent months waging a combative campaign against Trump and, until he dropped out of the race, President Joe Biden. But Kennedy eventually warmed to outreach from the Trump campaign, including a leaked July call in which the former president vaguely told Kennedy he would love for him to “do something.”
“I think it’ll be so good for you and so big for you. And we’re going to win,” Trump said on the call.
Later, Trump said he would be open to giving Kennedy, who has drawn controversy for his vaccine skepticism, a position in a future administration.
“I’d love that endorsement,” Trump told CNN when asked whether he had considered Kennedy for a role. “I like him. I respect him a lot. I probably would if something like that were to happen. He’s a very different kind of guy — a very smart guy. And, yeah, I would be honored by that endorsement, certainly.”
On Friday, Kennedy outlined in broad strokes his plans to reform parts of the federal government in conspiratorial terms, particularly the agencies that deal with drug regulations, food, and public health.
“These agencies, the FDA, USDA, and CDC, all of them are controlled by giant for-profit corporations,” Kennedy said. “Seventy-five percent of the FDA’s funding doesn’t come from taxpayers, it comes from pharma, and pharma executives and consultants and lobbyists cycle in and out of these agencies. With President Trump’s backing, I’m going to change that.”
He sounded skeptical that Trump will actually have him join his administration, but said he’s “choosing to believe” that he will follow through. Kennedy said Trump’s sons, biggest donors, and closest friends support his objective.
Kennedy’s running mate, Nicole Shanahan, said on Tuesday that the Kennedy campaign was debating whether to “join forces” with Trump or risk Vice President Kamala Harris taking office.
While Kennedy was expected to siphon support away from both Trump and Harris, the conventional wisdom was he would pull more heavily from Republican-leaning independents. Polling from the Wall Street Journal found that among voters backing third-party or independent candidates, half would switch their vote to Trump while one-quarter would back Harris.
Kennedy’s endorsement eliminates the third-party threat to the GOP and could push momentum back in Trump’s favor as polls show a tight race against Harris. Kennedy said that polling showed Harris would win the race if he stayed in, fueling his decision to take his name off of battleground state ballots and support Trump.
The DNC released a statement as Kennedy was still speaking that described him as a spoiler who was always running to help the GOP.
“The more voters learned about RFK Jr., the less they liked him,” DNC spokeswoman Mary Beth Cahill said. “Donald Trump isn’t earning an endorsement that’s going to help build support, he’s inheriting the baggage of a failed fringe candidate. Good riddance.”
Kennedy previously sought out both the Harris and Trump campaigns in order to ask them if he could have a role in their administrations if he dropped out and endorsed them, but the Harris campaign rebuffed Kennedy.
The Kennedy campaign has faced financial struggles of late, left with just $3.9 million in the bank at the end of last month while owing nearly $3.5 million, according to a report filed with the Federal Election Commission.
Kennedy had largely stopped campaigning in public since early July. His Friday event was held just 10 miles from where Trump is holding a rally in Glendale, Arizona. Organizers for the Trump rally have promised a “special guest” will appear.
I explored the potential effect of his endorsing Trump in a post earlier this week. As I noted, while RFK Jr.’s support seems to be around 3 to 6 percent, we don’t have detailed information on his voters in the crucial battleground states. However, if the race is as close in key states as it was in 2020 (when Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin were decided by a combined 43,000 votes), in theory, his withdrawal will put enough votes up for grabs to make the difference.
The major question is how many of RFK Jr. voters will follow him to Trump compared to how many are now going to stay home or defect to a different candidate. The most obvious assumption is that it will, at the minimum, create a marginal shift toward Trump that may be too small to be immediately detected by polls.
There is also the question of how it alters the conversation about the race. In his speech suspending his campaign, RFK Jr. attacked the Democratic Party as not being the party of his father and uncle, decrying the efforts to stifle dissent and keep him off ballots. He also lashed out at the media for being not much more than stenographers for Democrats. So with the endorsement, he is essentially validating Trump’s arguments about the “rigged” system to a different constituency.
On the other hand, embracing RFK Jr. carries its risks, as it will enable Democrats to tie Trump to a lot of RFK Jr.’s outlandish ideas.
I believe that early on, the RFK Jr. factor was being overstated as he had impressive poll numbers that had some analysts speculating he might even be able to beat President Biden in New Hampshire. That was silly, but it would be a mistake now to overcorrect and underestimate RFK Jr.’s potential to influence the outcome of a close race.
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