While most of the focus this week is on the Democratic National Convention, another story popped up today that could end up having more of an impact on the election than anything that happens in Chicago. And that is Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s running mate, Nicole Shanahan, revealing that the campaign is mulling two options: (1) Staying in the race in a bid to clear the 5 percent threshold and become eligible for public financing and ballot access next time, or (2) Drop out and endorse Donald Trump to prevent a Kamala Harris presidency.
Now, it’s possible that Shanahan was speaking out of turn and there isn’t any serious thinking going on along these lines. His running mate going rogue would not be the strangest thing that’s happened during the campaign. But assuming she is providing an accurate account of his current thinking, it’s a prospect worth taking seriously.
As RFK Jr.’s support has declined and he’s drawn attention for bizarre controversies (such as admitting to dumping a bear carcass in New York City’s Central Park and staging it to look like a bike accident), his potential to affect the race has been increasingly dismissed. But he is still pulling around 3 to 6 percent in polls, depending on the survey, or which state. Today, for instance, there was a Roanoke College poll of Virginia showing Harris up by just three points there, with Kennedy at 6 percent.
We don’t have enough data on who makes up the pool of current RFK Jr. supporters. For reference, the Virginia poll showed Kennedy pulling from each candidate equally. But there is a difference between a scenario in which RFK Jr. drops out and one in which he drops out and endorses Trump. If his candidacy simply ends, his supporters likely stay home or scatter among the remaining candidates. If RFK Jr. endorses Trump, however, one has to assume that on net, Trump gains more of his supporters than Harris does. This may be a small number, but still enough to make a huge difference.
Recall that in 2020, Trump lost Wisconsin, Arizona, and Georgia by about 43,000 votes. Had those gone the other way, it would have resulted in an Electoral College tie. This year, the RealClearPolitics average has seven states currently within two points or less.
CNN reporter Kristen Holmes caught up with Trump on the campaign trail in Michigan, where he expressed openness to appointing RFK to his next administration:
“I like him, and I respect him,” Trump told CNN’s Kristen Holmes in an interview after a campaign stop in Michigan.“He’s a brilliant guy. He’s a very smart guy. I’ve known him for a very long time,” the Republican presidential nominee said. “I didn’t know he was thinking about getting out, but if he is thinking about getting out, certainly I’d be open to it.” ...Asked if he would consider appointing Kennedy to a role in his administration if he wins in November, Trump said he “probably would.”“I like him a lot. I respect him a lot,” Trump said. “I probably would, if something like that would happen. He’s a very different kind of a guy — a very smart guy. And, yeah, I would be honored by that endorsement, certainly.”
Well well well. Most interesting of all, of course, is having a presidential nominee actually answer substantive questions on the campaign trail. Trump has always done that, of course, but it's less common among all nominees than it has been in cycles past.
Cutting a deal would be almost irresistible for Trump, but this one could have some real interesting effects. Eventually, of course, Trump hopes an alliance will pull RFK's Trump-skeptical voters back to the GOP. But first off, it's the kind of spectacular move that could help counter the effects of the Democrat switcheroo. It would be somewhat unprecedented, to my recollection, especially at this stage of the campaign. It also offers at least some credibility to Trump's attempts to paint himself as a unifier, assuming he can pull this off.
But most of all, the timing is exquisite. It comes right in the middle of the Democrat lovefest in Chicago and will necessarily distract from its careful staging and presumably surprise-free PR effort. Just having this in the headlines shifts the center of gravity in election coverage at the very moment that Democrats hoped to monopolize it. In that sense, Trump has already won a news cycle, and maybe the next few cycles depending on how this unfolds.
Will the two actually clinch a deal for an endorsement and RFK's exit? It depends on what Kennedy and Shanahan want in return. I'd hope it's not the HHS spot, given Kennedy's anti-vaxx history as well as on abortion, but he could probably get plugged in where he can't do a lot of harm (Commerce or Transportation, maybe?). Shanahan may not rate a Cabinet post, but she might be a good connection to have to Silicon Valley.
It is of course possible that an RFK Jr. endorsement would have downsides. The Harris campaign would immediately attempt to tie all the odd statements RFK Jr. has made over the years to Trump and use it as part of their anti-“weird” campaign.
