The Boeing Starliner crew may have to wait until 2025 to return from the International Space Station (ISS), NASA officials said Wednesday.
The administration suggested at a press conference that they may need to use Boeing’s competitor, SpaceX, to return astronauts Suni Wiliams and Butch Wilmore back to Earth. The officials said that if Starliner cannot make it back from the ISS, the duo could possibly return on SpaceX’s Crew Dragon in February 2025.
“We could take either path,” Ken Bowersox, the associate administrator for NASA’s space operations mission directorate, said. “And reasonable people could pick either path depending on where their view is on, on our position and the uncertainty bound that we have for the data that we’ve got on the thruster system, on the propulsion system.”
Starliner launched its test crew mission on June 5, after a series of delays caused by leaks and thruster issues. This marked the first time the company launched a crewed mission to space.
While trying to dock at the ISS in June, five of the 28 thrusters went down. The mission was initially supposed to last about 8 days, but there is still no official return date for Wiliams and Wilmore after the issues.
NASA said that they have been in talks with SpaceX for them to leave two vacant seats on their upcoming Crew Dragon launch in September, setting them up for a possible return next year. NASA’s commercial crew program manager Steve Stich said that the best option is still to return the astronauts on the Starliner.
“You know, our prime option is to return Butch and Suni on Starliner,” Stich said. “However, we have done the requisite planning to make sure we have other options open, and so we have been working with SpaceX to ensure that they’re ready to respond on Crew Nine for a contingency of returning a Butch and Suni on Crew Nine, if we need that.”
“We have set up the Dragon for Crew Nine to have flexibility, to have only two passengers fly up on that flight, and then we could return four crew members in the February 2025, timeframe,” he added.
Stich also noted that no decision has been made yet on how they will return.
I'm not trying to claim to be any sort of mystical prognosticator here, but back on June 19, I was already questioning whether Boeing would be able to bring the astronauts back home safely at all. A lot of the press releases coming out at that time smelled of corporate propaganda but hinted at potentially more serious problems. One week later, on June 24, I first suggested that Elon Musk should probably start warming up a Crew Dragon to go rescue Butch and Suni. That idea was once again mocked. By July 27, I was calling for NASA to simply give Boeing the boot and send in Musk's Crew Dragon. He could readily get the job done.
But now, thanks to the software failure mentioned above, they can't even do that. They are unable to unhook the disabled Starliner from the ISS and kick it away safely even if they want to. And that's the only port that the Crew Dragon can dock at. The other problems Starliner had were caused by helium leaks and failing thrusters. Those are mechanical issues. This is a software problem. Can it be fixed remotely while the spaceship is locked to the ISS and crippled? Even if Musk sent a Crew Dragon up there tomorrow, what is he supposed to do if they can't open up the port for his ship to dock? We've gone way past may level of expertise here (which is basically zero), but how would you transfer astronauts from the ISS to a Crew Dragon parked nearby and get them into the capsule and ready for the flight home? That's sound very challenging at a minimum.
Boeing and NASA are still insisting that this might all be resolved. But they've been saying these things from the beginning. They're using phrases such as "if the return trip looks too risky." If you can't detach the Starliner from the ISS docking port, what "return trip" are you talking about? They're also claiming that the astronauts might have to wait until the next scheduled Crew Dragon mission in February because it "won't be ready" until then. Give me a break. Musk launches rockets so often that people don't even bother reporting UFOs over Texas anymore. He has giant craft soaring into space multiple times per week sometimes. If you needed him up there this month, I'd be willing to bet he'd figure out a way to get it done.
But getting Musk's rocket up there doesn't solve anything unless you can safely get Butch and Suni into it, into a compatible spacesuit, and prepared for reentry. Meanwhile, the supplies for all of the astronauts are being drained at a rate faster than had been planned. It's unclear to me if we can even send up unmanned resupply missions at this point until Boeing's hunk of junk can be cleared from the docking port. I have to agree with David at this point. Boeing can't be trusted. They shouldn't be allowed to have anything to do with NASA again until they can prove that they can at least get their terrestrial aircraft off the ground without the wheels falling off.
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